Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) has released for the first time socio-economic status data at the provincial and district levels, based on 2023. Covering more than 26 million households, the study highlights sharp inequalities across Turkey, measuring income, education, and occupation.
Hakan Aran, head of İş Bank, the country’s largest private lender, said they expect Turkey’s annual inflation to drop to 29% by the end of 2025, with interest rates falling to 35%. Aran shared his predictions regarding the economic normalization process at a press conference. According to Aran, “we may see monthly inflation rates drop below 1% as the normalization process begins in May 2026.”
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Turkey rose 27% year-on-year to $6.3 billion in the first half of 2025, led by inflows from the Netherlands and Kazakhstan, according to the International Investors Association (YASED).
The government’s first pay offer in collective bargaining—10% for the first half of 2026, 6% for the second half, and 4% for each half of 2027—was rejected by public sector unions representing about four million civil servants and more than two million retirees.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said inflation is expected to stand between 25% and 29% at the end of 2025, and between 13% and 19% in 2026.
“Turkish newspapers should do more than the Washington Post,” wrote Fatih Selek in pro-government daily Türkiye, recalling that the American newspaper published the names of nearly 20,000 children murdered in Gaza.
The Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. After decades of failed attempts—such as the 2001 peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan or the 2009 Armenia–Turkey Zurich Protocols—Armenia and Azerbaijan have now initialed agreements that could pave the way for a historic breakthrough.
Turkey’s Constitutional Court has ruled that former HDP MP Hüda Kaya was unlawfully arrested and that her rights were violated after she was denied access to her file following her detention over the 2014 Kobani protests.
The dissolution and disarmament of the PKK, so far managed through security institutions, will be brought to Parliament’s agenda next week through a newly established commission. Although framed as “above politics” and “beyond party interests,” the “process” is creating new political maneuvering room for all parties. From the government to the opposition, political actors are repositioning themselves and recalculating strategies with an eye on the 2028 elections.
In the most dramatic leadership overhaul at the armed forces pension fund since the 2016 coup attempt, retired Lt. Gen. Zekai Aksakallı—a key figure in thwarting the coup—has been named chairman of the giant fund.
Ahead of renewed hopes for a peace process, Sözcü — known for its opposition stance — has stirred controversy with successive headlines alleging the mass release of PKK-linked prisoners. The Justice Ministry has twice rejected the newspaper’s reports, which first claimed 200 prisoners had been released and later suggested an additional 700 would follow.
The government's push for austerity in the public sector has failed to deliver results. Despite promises to cut costs—particularly through the disposal of surplus vehicles—public institutions spent 161.2 million lira on new vehicle purchases in the first half of 2024, while generating just 5.1 million lira in sales.