Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

TANKERS ATTACKED IN BLACK SEA AFTER U.S. WARNING, DESPITE TURKEY’S CONCERNS
Foreign Affairs Dec 5, 2025

TANKERS ATTACKED IN BLACK SEA AFTER U.S. WARNING, DESPITE TURKEY’S CONCERNS

Ukrainian naval drones struck two ships alleged to be part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea off the Turkish coast, increasing tension in the shared sea even as the combatants pursue renewed peace talks. The Sea Baby drones hit the oil tankers MT Kairos and MT Virat on Nov. 28. Russia has used hundreds of tankers known as the “shadow fleet” to evade Western sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, delivering millions of barrels of oil to buyers in breach of those restrictions.

Editorial Team
BERLIN’S DEFENSE TURN WARMS TIES WITH ANKARA, COOLS CONCERN FOR DEMOCRACY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 24, 2025

BERLIN’S DEFENSE TURN WARMS TIES WITH ANKARA, COOLS CONCERN FOR DEMOCRACY

Turkish democracy is the casualty of Europe’s rediscovery of Turkey’s strategic value. To better understand the context of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara next week, one has to go back to the end of the Cold War. Whereas European countries have benefited from the peace dividend, the contrary happened for Turkey in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain. After enjoying the relative stability of the bipolar order of the Cold War era, Turkey found itself in the midst of several conflict zones. While most European countries downsized their defense budgets, Turkey had no such luxury. The fight against separatist terrorism, the turbulence created by the Gulf War, and regional conflicts like the ones in the Caucasus dictated the maintenance of a big and well-equipped army.

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ERDOĞAN PUSHES FOR DEFENSE TIES AS MACRON FOCUSES ON UKRAINE SECURITY
Foreign Affairs Aug 21, 2025

ERDOĞAN PUSHES FOR DEFENSE TIES AS MACRON FOCUSES ON UKRAINE SECURITY

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call on Aug. 21, their first direct contact since the NATO summit in June. The two leaders discussed Russia’s war in Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, and bilateral cooperation, with Erdoğan again stressing Ankara’s interest in deepening defense ties with France. Both later shared posts on X, tagging each other in messages that underlined common concerns but also revealed different priorities. On bilateral ties, Erdoğan said Turkey valued closer cooperation with France, particularly in the defense industry, and wanted to keep advancing relations across multiple fields. Ankara has long sought approval from Paris to procure European air-defense systems. A green light for the sale of Eurosam GIE’s SAMP/T could accelerate Turkey’s plan to build its own missile shield, described as a “steel dome,” within two to three years.

Editorial Team
TURKEY GRAPPLES WITH CAPTURED E-STATE PASSWORDS
Inside Turkey Aug 7, 2025

TURKEY GRAPPLES WITH CAPTURED E-STATE PASSWORDS

With checks and balances eroded and power increasingly centralized, Turkey is facing what may be one of the biggest digital scandals in its history. The online signatures of high-level bureaucrats have been compromised, allowing a criminal network to appoint public servants via the e-State (e-Devlet) system, issue fake diplomas and licenses, forge English proficiency test results and sell properties— raising serious concerns about fraudulent graduates.

Editorial Team
İMAMOĞLU CLEARED OF ‘TARGETING’; RECEIVES PRISON SENTENCE FOR ‘THREAT’ AND ‘INSULT’
Inside Turkey Jul 16, 2025

İMAMOĞLU CLEARED OF ‘TARGETING’; RECEIVES PRISON SENTENCE FOR ‘THREAT’ AND ‘INSULT’

Jailed Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu was acquitted of charges of “targeting public officials involved in counterterrorism” but was convicted of “publicly insulting a public official due to his duty” and “making threats” in the case concerning Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor Akın Gürlek. The court sentenced İmamoğlu to one year and five months in prison for the insult charge and an additional two months and 15 days for the threat charge, totaling one year and eight months. If upheld by the appeals court, the ruling could result in a political ban.

Editorial Team
INWARD TURMOIL, OUTWARD TALKS: THE PARADOX OF TURKEY’S EU MOMENT
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Apr 4, 2025

INWARD TURMOIL, OUTWARD TALKS: THE PARADOX OF TURKEY’S EU MOMENT

“Turkey gives its children no chance to concern themselves with anything but itself,” said Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar, a prominent Turkish poet and novelist who died in 1962. While the world was preoccupied with Donald Trump’s tariffs and the international media’s coverage focused on the reactions, Turkey was only discussing the opposition's call for an economic boycott implemented on April 2.

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HALEP
Word of the Week Dec 6, 2024

HALEP

Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.

Nazlan Ertan
NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES
Inside Turkey Nov 29, 2024

NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.

Editorial Team