WHO IS LEADING THE POLLS?
CHP Chair Özgür Özel and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest disagreement is over which party is leading the polls. Since the March 2024 local elections, Özel has said the CHP is the most popular party.
Analysis
In-Depth Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
MAY DAY CLAMPDOWN OVERSHADOWED BY ERDOĞAN’S ITALIAN CHARM OFFENSIVE
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan paid a one-day official visit to Italy on April 29. He was received in Rome with pomp by his counterpart Sergio Matarella as well as Prime Minister Georgia Meloni. This was a visit of niceties on each side. To Erdoğan’s satisfaction, the Italians did not raise any political issues, especially those pertaining to his iron fist authoritarian rule and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoglu’s arrest.
ERDOĞAN’S RESPONSIBILITY AT THIS HISTORIC MOMENT
After the deplorable treatment of Zelenskyy at the hands of Trump and Vance in the Oval Office, there is no question that the world, especially Europe, is at a critical threshold. If a brave new Europe is to emerge out of this crisis, every stakeholder must play their part. How President Erdoğan assumes his responsibilities will be of crucial importance for Turkey. By Hakan Okçal
TWO MOST CHALLENGING PILLARS OF PEACE PROCESS
The Terror-Free Turkey process, widely dubbed as frozen or stalled, has been revived by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest remarks. Erdoğan said the process, now entering its 18th month, has reached a critical juncture requiring much more delicate management: “There is a positive atmosphere. What needs to be done is clear. The process is proceeding as it should.”
ERDOĞAN’S ELECTION PLAN
The CHP is seeking to win power but is trying to do politics while caught in a major judicial clampdown. Operations target municipalities on one front, and the threat of an “absolute nullity” ruling persists against the party center.
AS GOVERNMENT SIGNALS CONTINUITY, OPPOSITION SEES SHARED POLITICAL FATE WITH HUNGARY
Ankara’s signal that its “institutionalized good relations” with Hungary will continue even as the Turkish opposition congratulated Magyar as observers draw parallels between Orbán’s rule and Erdoğan’s.
IRAN’S DILEMMA AND ERDOĞAN’S OPTIONS
Forty Cleavers or Forty Mules for Iran? No information has leaked from the U.S.-Iran talks in Oman other than the statements from the two sides portraying them as positive. But it is no secret that Iran is faced with an impossible choice, like a thief in a Turkish fairy tale.
ERDOĞAN’S SIMIT CALCULUS COLLAPSES — NOW DIVIDED BY THREE
Economic hardship has long been measured through the humble simit -— the sesame-covered circular bread sometimes called the Turkish bagel. Now the ruling AKP is being accused of shrinking even that symbol. Once used by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to show that a family could not afford a single simit and tea with the minimum wage, the calculation has taken a new turn: a simit divided into three.
REVISING THE PRESIDENCY: AKP’S NEW CONSTITUTION GAMBLE
The new civil constitution that the AKP has been calling for since the 2023 elections is set to become one of the key issues in the new year. Revising the presidential system, addressing the needs of a new peace process, and — inevitably — paving the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed candidacy are the main pillars of this process. But any such changes would first require consensus within the party, and then support from the opposition.
ERDOĞAN’S SLOW WALK TO PEACE WITH EYES ON THE POLLS
This marks the third attempt to persuade the PKK to lay down arms during the AKP’s 23-year rule.
KAAN PROJECT HIT BY U.S. SANCTIONS
Trumpeting that Turkey is on the way to making its fighter jet Kaan, Turkey faced the reality that it was impossible to produce them by 2028, the expected election year, as promised to the public. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged that the future of the project depends on the U.S. Congress and U.S. CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey. Fidan’s goals and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s knowledge of the situation topped the agenda.
EYES ON ERDOĞAN’S MESSAGE, BAHÇELİ’S INITIATIVE AS NEW TERM BEGINS
As the Turkish Parliament begins its new legislative year on Oct. 1, attention will center on MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli—who launched the “Terror-Free Turkey” peace initiative a year ago—and on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks regarding its future. Following a 70-day recess, Parliament will convene with a special General Assembly session at 2:00 p.m. As usual, Erdoğan will deliver an opening address, though the CHP will boycott the ceremony in protest of recent mayoral arrests and crackdowns on municipalities. This year, the political spotlight will remain on post-PKK arrangements such as the “Return Home” law, the “right to hope,” and amendments to the penal code.