Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

BERLIN’S DEFENSE TURN WARMS TIES WITH ANKARA, COOLS CONCERN FOR DEMOCRACY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 24, 2025

BERLIN’S DEFENSE TURN WARMS TIES WITH ANKARA, COOLS CONCERN FOR DEMOCRACY

Turkish democracy is the casualty of Europe’s rediscovery of Turkey’s strategic value. To better understand the context of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara next week, one has to go back to the end of the Cold War. Whereas European countries have benefited from the peace dividend, the contrary happened for Turkey in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain. After enjoying the relative stability of the bipolar order of the Cold War era, Turkey found itself in the midst of several conflict zones. While most European countries downsized their defense budgets, Turkey had no such luxury. The fight against separatist terrorism, the turbulence created by the Gulf War, and regional conflicts like the ones in the Caucasus dictated the maintenance of a big and well-equipped army.

Barçın Yinanç
ANKARA–BEIJING TIES TESTED FROM HOTEL DOORS TO TRADE FLOORS
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Sep 19, 2025

ANKARA–BEIJING TIES TESTED FROM HOTEL DOORS TO TRADE FLOORS

It is not unusual for a Turkish citizen visiting China to receive a knock on the door in the middle of the night by a police officer. On my third day in China, I received a call from the reception telling me a police officer wanted to come up to my room to ask a few questions. I said that I would come down and while I was trying to get in touch with the German think-tank that had invited me to China, the receptionist and the police officer were at the door of my hotel room.

Barçın Yinanç
WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 11, 2024

WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN

When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.

Barçın Yinanç
GERMAN LEADERS SEEK ERDOĞAN’S HELP AGAINST AfD
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 4, 2024

GERMAN LEADERS SEEK ERDOĞAN’S HELP AGAINST AfD

“We certainly have a problem and it is clear we need to be in dialogue with Turkey to solve it,” a high-level German official told me when asked about news stories that Ankara and Berlin reached an understanding to send Turkish illegal migrants back to Turkey. “We told the Germans we are ready to work with them but we have not reached an agreement,” told me a Turkish official.

Barçın Yinanç