Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
The CHP is seeking to win power but is trying to do politics while caught in a major judicial clampdown. Operations target municipalities on one front, and the threat of an “absolute nullity” ruling persists against the party center.
A series of legal operations targeting CHP-run municipalities intensified on April 9 as CHP Chair Özgür Özel repeated calls for a by-election.
A second Turkish opposition party has voiced support for early elections, backing a call made by the CHP following a wave of detentions targeting CHP-run municipalities.
Let us say it plainly at the outset: the answer is no. This is bigger than his wishes or reluctance. For more than a year, based on the operations against CHP municipalities, there has been a slew of analyses claiming that 'Erdoğan will not hold elections'. Similar analyses — citing earthquakes and wars as justification for him avoiding elections — also proved wrong before the 2023 elections and before.
The main opposition, the CHP, has had a tough year of operations targeting its municipalities and lawsuits against its party congress. According to party officials, the appointment of Akın Gürlek — who oversaw the municipal investigations — as justice minister signals that the road to elections may become even more challenging.
Legal pressure on the main opposition CHP continued as allegations of drug use were expanded to include relatives of Ekrem İmamoğlu’s wife, while prosecutors finalized a separate “political espionage” indictment against the imprisoned presidential candidate. At the same time, an Istanbul court ordered the release of a high-profile mayor held on corruption charges, marking a notable shift in the broader judicial process. As a significant development in the ongoing corruption trials, the court ordered the release of Adana Mayor Zeydan Karalar, who had been in detention since July. Karalar became the first CHP mayor to be freed since the start of the Aziz İhsan Aktaş case on Jan. 27. Eight other employees of several municipalities were also released.
With the “Terror-Free Turkey” process on one hand and the row over operations targeting CHP-run municipalities on the other, it’s easy to forget that the country’s main problem is deepening poverty and social decay.
With the “change” endorsement from Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özgür Özel became CHP chair and will mark his second year in office in just ten days. Many see this as the “most difficult two years” in the party’s 102-year history, as policies were revised and key positions changed. While also battling lawsuits to annul its congress and ongoing operations against municipalities, the CHP seems poised to fight on new fronts—starting with the possible lifting of parliamentary immunities—as the election calendar nears.
A wave of asset seizures and prosecutions has shattered old certainties about which business groups are in favor with the government. The detentions and confiscations – some linked to the corruption probes into CHP municipalities – are raising hairs across the business world with observers uncertain whether it’s a genuine anti-corruption effort, a move to redistribute capital, or a sign of an internal power struggle within the presidency.
As the Turkish Parliament begins its new legislative year on Oct. 1, attention will center on MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli—who launched the “Terror-Free Turkey” peace initiative a year ago—and on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remarks regarding its future. Following a 70-day recess, Parliament will convene with a special General Assembly session at 2:00 p.m. As usual, Erdoğan will deliver an opening address, though the CHP will boycott the ceremony in protest of recent mayoral arrests and crackdowns on municipalities. This year, the political spotlight will remain on post-PKK arrangements such as the “Return Home” law, the “right to hope,” and amendments to the penal code.
The Ankara Municipality became the latest target of the crackdown against CHP-run municipalities, and CHP Chair Özgür Özel once again started highlighting Mayor Mansur Yavaş’s presidential candidacy. “Mansur Yavaş is seen as the strongest possible candidate if Ekrem İmamoğlu cannot run for presidency. Polls show he would beat (Recep Tayyip) Erdoğan,” Özel said. “It is clear that Yavaş is also being targeted with the same intent.”
September was expected to be tough for the CHP due to ongoing investigations and trials—but no one expected a storm of this magnitude. Having fought operations targeting its municipalities for the past nine months, the CHP is now shaken by the court decision that appointed a “trustee” to its Istanbul congress. CHP members, calling this a “new judicial coup,” saw the move as the extension of operations against municipalities into the party itself. Speculation has grown that a trustee could also be appointed to the party headquarters in the coming days.