Analysis

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Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

'BAHÇELİ SHOULD KEEP HIS PROMISE'
Inside Turkey Aug 8, 2025

'BAHÇELİ SHOULD KEEP HIS PROMISE'

Mustafa Karasu, a leading figure in the PKK, has said MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli should keep his promise regarding the “right to hope” for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

Editorial Team
IF THE PKK IS CHANGING, WHY CAN’T THE DEM PARTY?
Capital Currents Jul 18, 2025

IF THE PKK IS CHANGING, WHY CAN’T THE DEM PARTY?

After 47 years, the PKK has decided to disband and lay down arms. According to the group’s founder, Abdullah Öcalan, this marks a paradigm shift: the struggle will now continue through strengthened political engagement. Following what both the government and opposition have called a “historic” decision, change is now expected within the DEM Party—the Kurdish political movement’s representative in Turkish Parliament. As one MP who recently visited Öcalan on İmralı Island put it: “Even the PKK is changing—why wouldn’t the DEM Party?”

Nergis Demirkaya
PRAYERS FOR BAHÇELİ TO ACHIEVE A ‘TERROR-FREE TURKEY’
Capital Currents May 2, 2025

PRAYERS FOR BAHÇELİ TO ACHIEVE A ‘TERROR-FREE TURKEY’

t has been seven months since MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli extended a hand to DEM Party members, and two months since PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called on his organization to lay down arms. The PKK, which announced it would comply with the call, made its first request for Öcalan to be allowed to communicate with the organization in order to hold a dissolution congress. However, no concrete progress has been made on this request, which requires government action. This has led some to ask if the process is stalling or whether there is a problem between the AKP and the MHP.

Nergis Demirkaya
İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK
Word of the Week Mar 14, 2025

İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK

The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment.  Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.

Editorial Team
TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 10, 2025

TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE

The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

Barçın Yinanç
ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?
Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan
İP
Word of the Week Oct 25, 2024

İP

İp (noun, rope, as in noose) made a dramatic entrance into Turkey’s political lexicon this week when the İyi Party’s new-ish leader, Müsavat Dervişoğlu, hurled a noose at MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. This came in response to Bahçeli’s suggestion that PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan could be granted certain privileges—potentially even addressing Parliament—if he were to publicly call for the PKK’s dissolution. (For details, see last and this week’s Deep Dive.)

Nazlan Ertan