CENTRAL BANK UPS INFLATION TARGETS FOR 2026, 2027
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said inflation is expected to stand between 25% and 29% at the end of 2025, and between 13% and 19% in 2026.
Analysis
In-Depth Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
QUESTIONS MOUNT OVER SOLDIER DEATHS
Twelve Turkish soldiers died from gas exposure in a PKK-used cave in northern Iraq on July 6, and two more from excessive fluid loss in Hatay on July 25, but key questions about both incidents remain unanswered.
OLIVE GROVES OPENED TO MINING DESPITE OUTCRY
Parliament passed a legislative package on July 19 that enables mining in olive groves, triggering protests from opposition parties, locals, and environmental groups. The bill, which the AKP says is to address Turkey’s energy needs, passed with 255 votes in favor and 199 against.
CHEATING ALLEGATIONS MAR 2025 HIGH SCHOOL ENTRANCE EXAM
Allegations of widespread cheating in Turkey’s national High School Entrance Exam (LGS) have triggered a political storm, with opposition figures accusing the Education Ministry of negligence and a cover-up, while Minister Yusuf Tekin has forcefully rejected the claims, using inflammatory language to discredit critics. More than a month after the exam, a senior official from the ministry has been dismissed.
ASELSAN TOPS BORSA ISTANBUL IN H1 2025
ASELSAN, which led Borsa Istanbul (BIST) in trading volume in April, closed the first half of 2025 as the exchange’s most valuable company.
HOW WILL THE TRUMP TARIFF HIKES IMPACT TURKEY?
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China. Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.
DİPLOMA
A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.
ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ
“The first political party leader to be arrested since the September 12, 1980, military coup era after Selahattin Demirtaş.” The arrest of Zafer Party Chair Ümit Özdağ was reported in the media with this headline. However, there is no other similarity that would warrant him being mentioned in the same sentence as Demirtaş. In fact, they belong to entirely different worlds and are entirely opposing figures. Özdağ has been in custody at Silivri Prison for a month since Jan. 21, 2025.
TURKEY AND EUROPE WEIGH STRATEGIC TIES IN A POST-TRUMP WORLD
More countries regard Turkey as an ally, according to the Munich Security Report 2025, released ahead of the titular conference which will take place from Feb. 14 to Feb. 16. The rate of people viewing Turkey as an ally, not a “threat,” increased in all of the 11 countries where the survey was held, except France.
YOKSULLUK, YOLSUZLUK, YASAKLAR
I had hoped to welcome 2025 with the word “umut”—hope—dear readers. Yet the somber mood of New Year’s Eve, when deserted streets echoed the gloom on Turkish television, has nudged me toward a more fitting phrase for the times: the 3Ys of Turkey. “Yoksulluk, Yolsuzluk, Yasaklar”- poverty, corruption, and prohibitions.
ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.