Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli joined the newly launched social media platform Next Sosyal, developed by Baykar Chair Selçuk Bayraktar, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s son-in-law.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remark about a “triple alliance” between the AKP, MHP, and DEM Party has drawn a sharp rebuke from DEM Co-Chair Tülay Hatimoğulları, who said the comment misrepresented the party’s role in the ongoing disarmament process.
As the dust settles from the economic shocks of the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the breakdown of traditional supply chains, a new global order is taking shape—one where economic policy is no longer just about growth and trade but about power, resilience, and survival. Amid this transformation, Turkey stands at a crossroads: a country historically anchored to the West but increasingly drawn to non-Western alignments, and now forced to choose a direction in a fractured world.
In Turkish, the word yumruk means “fist” and yumruk atmak is to “punch.” But like many Turkish words with physical origins, it punches well above its weight in metaphor.
In Turkish, çocuk simply means “child” — a small, willful person who believes the world should bend to their will. But in political life, çocuk is more than a noun: it is a litmus test. Unlike evlat, the solemn, Arabic-rooted term for “offspring,” çocuk suggests an individual, complete in themselves, not just a branch on a family tree. No surprise, then, that the AKP prefers evlat — a word that keeps people firmly tethered to family, lineage, and duty.
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.
I had hoped to welcome 2025 with the word “umut”—hope—dear readers. Yet the somber mood of New Year’s Eve, when deserted streets echoed the gloom on Turkish television, has nudged me toward a more fitting phrase for the times: the 3Ys of Turkey. “Yoksulluk, Yolsuzluk, Yasaklar”- poverty, corruption, and prohibitions.
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.
The turn of events in Syria is related to three evolving issues: the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, and the upcoming Trump 2.0. Bashar al-Assad survived the civil war thanks to his powerful allies, Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have all been weakened.
For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.
When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.
Sucuk (noun- pronounced suˈdʒuk): semi-dried beef-based sausage mixed with salt, pepper, garlic, sumac, and other spices made by a dry-curing process. In Turkey, the cities of Kayseri and Afyon battle over which has the better sucuk. It is known as sudzhuk in Bulgaria and Russia, suxhuk in Albania, and soutzouki in Greece.