Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Ahead of renewed hopes for a peace process, Sözcü — known for its opposition stance — has stirred controversy with successive headlines alleging the mass release of PKK-linked prisoners. The Justice Ministry has twice rejected the newspaper’s reports, which first claimed 200 prisoners had been released and later suggested an additional 700 would follow.
Turkey and France, NATO allies and regional heavyweights, are locked in a relationship best described as a cocktail of competition, cooperation, and confrontation. Despite shared interests in trade and global security, Ankara and Paris appear increasingly out of step on strategic and ideological matters even as flashpoints multiply.
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.
The Syrian government has requested support from Turkey to strengthen the country's defense capabilities and fight terrorist organizations, particularly Islamic State, the Defense Ministry said.
The arithmetic in the Turkish Parliament is shifting rapidly, as party defections mount. Since the May 2023 elections, 35 lawmakers have resigned from their parties, significantly altering the composition of parliament. The İYİ Party has shrunk from 43 to 29 MPs; DEVA has dropped from 15 to 9; and Gelecek from 10 to 4. Of the defectors, 11 joined the AKP and 10 moved to the CHP. Fourteen now sit as independents.
The AKP and MHP are gearing up to promote the “Terror-free Turkey” initiative on the ground, while the İYİ Party prepares a counter-move.
In Turkish, the term for ambassador has undergone a transformation as sweeping as the empire it once served. The old-fashioned word was “Sefir,” from the Arabic s‑f‑r root meaning “to bear a message,” and the highest rank was Sefir‑i Kebir—the Grand Envoy—complete with embroidered robes and horse-led fanfare. Today, the bureaucratic “Büyükelçi” literally means “great envoy,” yet, put in plain Turkish, it feels a little less illustrious.
The Central Bank lowered its one-week repo rate from 46% to 43% on July 24, despite warning signs that inflation pressures persist. This was the first cut following the April rate hike. The Monetary Policy Committee also reduced the overnight lending rate from 49% to 46% and the overnight borrowing rate from 44.5% to 41.5%. While June’s core inflation trend remained unchanged, preliminary indicators pointed to a temporary rise in July inflation due to month-specific factors.
After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.
Parliament passed a legislative package on July 19 that enables mining in olive groves, triggering protests from opposition parties, locals, and environmental groups. The bill, which the AKP says is to address Turkey’s energy needs, passed with 255 votes in favor and 199 against.
Ahead of CHP’s hesitations to join the parliamentary commission, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan said that the party will maintain its opposition identity even if the process is successful. Bakırhan stated that the matter will eventually be brought before the DEM and that they will not approve the constitutional amendment if it does not satisfy their demands regarding the Kurdish issue, democratization, women's rights, youth, Alevis' right to equal citizenship, economic justice, and the environment.
One of the prosecutors overseeing the case against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has come under fire after CHP Chair Özgür Özel revealed that the prosecutor displays a model of a Beyaz Toros—a car widely associated with disappearances and state violence in the 1990s. İmamoğlu, who has been held at Silivri Prison since his March 19 arrest, recounted the incident during an interview with journalist Ruşen Çakır of Medyascope as he visited the Istanbul Mayor in prison. İmamoğlu said the prosecutor, who took his testimony following the sweeping police operation, placed a symbolic image of the white Renault Toros on his desk and ended the interrogation by saying: “Tomorrow you become president, then you judge us.”