ONE NATION, TWO STATES, GROWING DISTANCE
For decades, Turkish foreign policy in the Caucasus rested on a single, unshakeable motto set by former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev: 'One nation, two states.'
Analysis
In-Depth Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
FIDAN BRIEFS LOYALIST MEDIA OFF THE RECORD — BUT TO WHAT END?
Journalist Deniz Zeyrek writes about a closed-door briefing organized by AKP's media and communications chief Faruk Acar, at which Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke to senior editors and Ankara bureau chiefs from pro-government outlets about Turkey's foreign policy. Zeyrek identifies three problems with the meeting.
THE STATE AND THE STAGE
Foreign policy has always liked theater, costumes and masks. Peace conferences, state visits, summit handshakes, seating plans, flags, solemn declarations. All belong to the choreography of international life.
ONLY 233 F-16S LEFT IN TURKISH ARMY
The Air Force, which has been unable to procure new fighter jets for over 20 years because of foreign policy obstacles, lost another fighter jet on Feb. 25, reducing the number of F-16s in its inventory to 233. Thus, the number of fighter jets in active service fell from approximately 450 to 252 over the same period.
CHP’S FOREIGN POLICY DILEMMA: RULES OVER PERSONALITY IN A TRUMP ERA
The CHP emphasizes moving away from personalized, leader-to-leader foreign policy toward one grounded in formal institutions, rules, transparency, and oversight.
ISOT DIPLOMACY: WHY STATES KEEP ASKING FOR “A BIT MORE HEAT?”
There are nations that approach foreign policy the way sensible adults approach dinner: they taste, they adjust, they stop before their eyes start watering in public.
U.S. SEIZURE OF MADURO RAISES “INTERNAL FRONT” CONTROVERSY IN TURKEY
The abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the United States has reignited a fierce debate in Turkey over the concept of the “internal front,” a term increasingly used by the government to call for national unity amid shifting global dynamics. The notion of “fortifying the internal front” — defined by the government as acting in unison on national issues — gained prominence alongside changes in the international order. It was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who first introduced the phrase in August 2024, and has repeatedly emphasized it over the past year as a shield against foreign policy challenges and a necessity for “national survival.”
ERDOĞAN REAPS BENEFITS OF HIS GOOD TIES WITH TRUMP
The most important foreign policy development of this week was incontestably U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria during his visit to Saudi Arabia.
NEW CODES OF TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY
When a Canadian camera was found in a downed Turkish drone in the war in Nagorno Karabakh, the Canadian government canceled the product’s export permit in April 2021. “The use of technology in this way is inconsistent with Canada’s foreign policy and Turkey’s end-user commitments,” said the country’s then-foreign minister.
ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.
NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.
TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN
When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall. Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.