Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
More than one and a half years into US President Donald Trump’s second term, despite repeated positive messages from both sides regarding lifting the arms embargo on Turkey, neither Ankara nor Washington has taken steps to meet their commitments.
The Terror-Free Turkey process, widely dubbed as frozen or stalled, has been revived by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest remarks. Erdoğan said the process, now entering its 18th month, has reached a critical juncture requiring much more delicate management: “There is a positive atmosphere. What needs to be done is clear. The process is proceeding as it should.”
Forty Cleavers or Forty Mules for Iran? No information has leaked from the U.S.-Iran talks in Oman other than the statements from the two sides portraying them as positive. But it is no secret that Iran is faced with an impossible choice, like a thief in a Turkish fairy tale.
Following the PKK’s decision to lay down arms, the newly launched “peace process” has become tangled up in tensions over Syria. The military operation by the Damascus regime that pushed the SDF/YPG out of two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has strained relations between the AKP–MHP alliance and the DEM Party, ending a cautious rapprochement as part of the process. It has also disrupted a positive atmosphere that had lasted for nearly a year, raising fresh doubts about the prospects of success.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan has likened inflation to a virus, saying it becomes harder to eliminate the longer it lingers in the economy. “We are applying the right prescription,” he said. “We’ve achieved positive results so far, and we have no doubts about our ultimate goal. But the effect of the prescription varies from case to case.”
The first meeting in six years between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House started with positive messages, as both refrained from directly addressing the issue of Gaza, on which they are at odds.Trump suggested the U.S. could lift sanctions on Turkey and allow it to buy U.S. F-35 jets, blocked due to Turkey’s procurement of S-400s from Russia, but added that he would like to see Turkey - a NATO member - stop buying Russian oil while the war in Ukraine continues. 'I'd like to have him stop buying any oil from Russia while Russia continues this rampage against Ukraine.'
In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations. As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 sent shockwaves throughout Europe. “Everyone was expecting Trump to approach Putin; what shocked Europe was Trump’s positive attitude towards the Russian leader,” a Turkish diplomat told me.