Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Despite strained ties with Israel following the October 7 attacks, Turkey has emphasized its key role in brokering a ceasefire in Syria’s Suweida province, where fighting between Israel-backed Druze groups and Bedouin Arab tribes had escalated to involve regime forces.
Just weeks before the Supreme Military Council (YAŞ) meets to decide on promotions in the ranks, the ruling AKP introduced a bill to amend the Turkish Armed Forces Personnel Law, allowing force commanders to remain in office until age 72 with presidential approval.
A new front has been opened in the judicial assault on the main opposition CHP, shifting the focus from Istanbul to the party’s stronghold in Izmir. The latest set of raids came as Izmir fought off forest fires and as the CHP prepared to hold a major rally in Saraçhane—home to Istanbul's Municipality—marking the 100th day of Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s pre-trial detention. They also followed hard on the heels of a court hearing that could have annulled the party’s 2023 congress.
t has been seven months since MHP Chair Devlet Bahçeli extended a hand to DEM Party members, and two months since PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan called on his organization to lay down arms. The PKK, which announced it would comply with the call, made its first request for Öcalan to be allowed to communicate with the organization in order to hold a dissolution congress. However, no concrete progress has been made on this request, which requires government action. This has led some to ask if the process is stalling or whether there is a problem between the AKP and the MHP.
In Turkish, “turp gibi” means “healthy as a horse'—literally, as fit as a turp/turnip. But this week, the humble vegetable shed its healthful connotations and marched into politics with muddy boots. At a raucous rally in Yozgat—where over a thousand farmers formed a tractor convoy in defiance of mounting government pressure—a farmer stood before the crowd and bellowed: “The country cannot be ruled with turnips and radishes. It is governed by justice and law” or rather, with the local accent, “A country cannae be ruled wi’ neeps an’ deeshes.”
The Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been on the radar of those who follow international relations due to two recent developments. Traditionally, the Central Asian Republics, rich in natural resources in a geo-strategic location, have been in the Russian sphere of influence and Russia still tries to exert dominance over them. However, nearly all have started to diversify their relations with third countries and regional groupings such as China, the U.S., the EU and Turkey.
In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations. As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China. Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.
The word of the week is—surprise, surprise—“boycott.” This word has its roots in Ireland but was readily adopted by the Ottoman Empire as “boykotaj” in the early 20th century. It all began with a stubborn man and a group of angry farmers. Charles Boycott, the eponymous land agent in 19th-century Ireland, refused to lower rents. In return, local tenants refused to acknowledge his existence—no violence, no slogans—just pure, icy silence. Labourers wouldn’t work his land, shopkeepers wouldn’t serve him, even the postman changed routes in what was the forefather of today’s cancel culture. Boycott became so isolated that his name turned into a verb.
The cancellation of the Istanbul mayor’s diploma, followed by his arrest, came two days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone with U.S. President Donald Trump. For many, this was not a coincidence. This telephone conversation was underreported, according to Steve Witcoff. “Good news is coming from Turkey,” added Trump’s special envoy on March 22, when thousands had taken to the streets to protest the blatant assault against Turkish democracy.
Following Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest and removal from office, Nuri Aslan was elected as acting mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. The election took place in the municipal council, but it was clearly İmamoğlu who selected Aslan. Now, everyone is trying to decode why İmamoğlu opted for such an unfamiliar name. One of the key reasons for picking Aslan is the “quiet strength” he embodies. He’s been walking the path with İmamoğlu in Istanbul for years—but always behind the scenes, never seeking the spotlight.
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.