By Barçın Yinanç
The cancellation of the Istanbul mayor’s diploma, followed by his arrest, came two days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone with U.S. President Donald Trump. For many, this was not a coincidence.
This telephone conversation was underreported, according to Steve Witcoff. “Good news is coming from Turkey,” added Trump’s special envoy on March 22, when thousands had taken to the streets to protest the blatant assault against Turkish democracy.
“It is a good country, and a good leader,” Trump told the new U.S. envoy to Ankara, just as Marco Rubio was welcoming Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Erdoğan’s foreign policy advisor Çağatay Kılıç was also in D.C. to meet his counterpart and Congress leaders.
TRUMP’S CHOICE
One does not have to be an expert to conclude that Trump would be more happy to deal with an autocratic regime than a democratic one. And no doubt Erdoğan and his associates must be thrilled by the fact that the U.S. will turn a blind eye while democracy is being decimated in Turkey.
While this could strengthen Erdoğan’s hands against his domestic opponents, it will increase the vulnerability of Turkish diplomacy. Trump calculates the strengths and vulnerabilities of his interlocutors. He must remember that he dealt a devastating blow to the Turkish economy with just one tweet during his first term. He is therefore aware that he deserves Erdoğan’s appreciation in return for his silence in the face of the suppression of dissent in Turkey.
EXPECTATIONS IN SYRIA
In that respect, the U.S. would expect Turkey to exercise restraint on Syria. As the U.S. negotiated a deal between Syrian leader Ahmet Al Sharaa and the YPG, Washington would want Ankara to respect the conditions of the deal (which remain to be detailed) and not derail the process.
Ankara has already shown signs of acquiescence as it has changed its rhetoric on the YPG, asking only non-Syrian members of the YPG to leave the country.
“We used to say ‘the YPG is equal to the PKK; the YPG is PKK’s wing in Syria. If this is so, how come the purge of only those who are not Syrian in the YPG is now acceptable for us? I have difficulty understanding this,” Turkey’s last envoy to Damascus, Ömer Önhon, told the press.
No doubt, the term “united Syria,” used by the U.S. statement following the meeting, must have pleased Ankara, but the reference to Iran less so.
The statement “reiterated the need for close cooperation to support a stable, unified, peaceful Syria that is neither a base for international terrorism nor a pathway for destabilizing Iranian activities.”
Probably, this was a message to both Iran and Israel, as the Netanyahu government sees Turkey’s role in Syria not as benign.
SALE OF F-35S BACK ON THE AGENDA
Meanwhile, the most concrete development, if one looks at the briefing notes provided by the Turkish side, is Washington’s willıngness to lift obstructions in front of defense cooperation.
The sale of F-16s and the lifting of the CAATSA sanctions were no doubt on the table.
Trump is reportedly ready to open the F-35 fighter jet sale to Turkey if it disables its Russian S-400 defense systems, according to the U.S. media.
The loss of potential buyers of F-35s might have put the issue back on the table.
U.S. allies and partners started to wonder whether the weapon systems and platforms they have bought or will buy from the U.S. would work if there was a rupture in their relations with Washington. Some started to question their commitment to buying F-35s.
Canada and Portugal have already announced their decision to reconsider. Trump suggested selling “toned-down” jets to U.S. allies in the future, because “someday, maybe they’re not our allies.”
Erdoğan would signal willingness to buy F-35s to gain favors from Trump. In addition, defense experts believe Turkey needs F-35s to face challenges from Greece, Russia, as well as Israel.
Excluded from the F-35 program, Turkey was also eyeing the Eurofighters. But in view of the negative turn that bilateral relations have taken in the past and Trump’s unpredictability, “the trust issue” will be an important question Ankara will have to dwell on. Most probably, Ankara would ask to return to the joint production program rather than simply purchasing them.
Meanwhile, the U.S. request of Turkey’s support for peace in the South Caucasus, as mentioned in the U.S. statement, is noteworthy, since a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku remains high on the U.S. agenda. Baku was among the capitals Witkoff visited this month.
