Analysis – Turkey In Depth – Smart, informed focus on the stories that matter

Portrait of the Week Mar 21, 2025

CITY OF ISTANBUL AND BIG ROUNDUP

'Whoever loses Istanbul also loses Turkey.' These are the words of President Erdoğan. When did he say it? Eight years ago. Who was he addressing? His own party members, who had begun to sense that the spell was breaking, and realize that things were not going well. If we read this statement in reverse, the conclusion is clear: 'Whoever wins Istanbul also wins Turkey.' Since making this statement, Erdoğan has lost Istanbul twice. In the 2019 and 2024 local elections, the opposition took control of the city.

Anonymous

Portrait of the Week Mar 14, 2025

DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE

“Devletin Başına Devlet Gelecek” (The State Will Have Devlet as Its Leader). Do we still remember this slogan? How many of us do? It was the most important slogan the MHP created for their leader, Devlet Bahçeli. It has been more than ten years, maybe even longer, since this slogan was last heard. Many have linked its disappearance to Bahçeli’s and, consequently, MHP’s strong and open support for President Erdoğan since 2016. That might be true, but it cannot be explained by this alone.

Anonymous

Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey. It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team

Portrait of the Week Feb 28, 2025

SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”

We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."

Anonymous

Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 3, 2025

ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA

Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.

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Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan

Erospolis Nov 22, 2024

EDUCATING YUSUF

Hats off to Yusuf Tekin, Turkey’s controversial education minister, for cramming all of Turkey’s thorny subjects into a single speech and creating a debate that drew in political party leaders, actresses, and laymen. It was a performance to steal the limelight from Trump, let alone Erdoğan himself. The Erzurum-born minister, who launched a controversial new curriculum last year, traveled from Baku to Batman, where he presents his education strategy to a large audience. On Nov. 17, he attended COP29 in Baku, where he explained how environmental awareness was now part of the Turkish education system. His critics would say he referred to the controversial project called CEDES, an acronym for “I protect my environment and claim my values.” The project does have an environmental focus, but it also has a “religious values” component under which local imams and preachers are assigned to each school in the project to provide spiritual guidance for students.

Nazlan Ertan

Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan

Erospolis Oct 25, 2024

NEW GANG, OLD CORRUPTION

A week after the revelation of a scandal involving a criminal network that reaped profits by exploiting newborn babies, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed on Oct. 22 to take swift action. “As president of the republic, I will ensure that those monsters who destroyed the lives of babies never see the light of day again,” he pledged. The “Newborn Gang” scandal has cast a shadow over Erdoğan’s healthcare policies, a critical electoral stronghold for his Islamist-populist AKP.

Nazlan Ertan

Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 18, 2024

CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s upcoming visit to Athens comes at a moment of some confusion about Turkey’s relations with Greece. The status of bilateral ties came under scrutiny after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece on the sidelines of annual UN summit in New York in September.

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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 11, 2024

WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN

When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.

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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 4, 2024

GERMAN LEADERS SEEK ERDOĞAN’S HELP AGAINST AfD

“We certainly have a problem and it is clear we need to be in dialogue with Turkey to solve it,” a high-level German official told me when asked about news stories that Ankara and Berlin reached an understanding to send Turkish illegal migrants back to Turkey. “We told the Germans we are ready to work with them but we have not reached an agreement,” told me a Turkish official.

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In-Depth Analysis