Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

İŞ BANK SEES 29% INFLATION, 35% INTEREST RATES AT END-2025
Economy and Finance Aug 15, 2025

İŞ BANK SEES 29% INFLATION, 35% INTEREST RATES AT END-2025

Hakan Aran, head of İş Bank, the country’s largest private lender, said they expect Turkey’s annual inflation to drop to 29% by the end of 2025, with interest rates falling to 35%. Aran shared his predictions regarding the economic normalization process at a press conference. According to Aran, “we may see monthly inflation rates drop below 1% as the normalization process begins in May 2026.”

Editorial Team
GOVERNMENT PAY RISE PROPOSAL SPARKS UNION OUTRAGE
Economy and Finance Aug 15, 2025

GOVERNMENT PAY RISE PROPOSAL SPARKS UNION OUTRAGE

The government’s first pay offer in collective bargaining—10% for the first half of 2026, 6% for the second half, and 4% for each half of 2027—was rejected by public sector unions representing about four million civil servants and more than two million retirees.

Editorial Team
A NEW CHAPTER IN CAUCASUS - IF IT HOLDS
Guest Voices Aug 11, 2025

A NEW CHAPTER IN CAUCASUS - IF IT HOLDS

The Caucasus is undergoing a fundamental transformation that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. After decades of failed attempts—such as the 2001 peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan or the 2009 Armenia–Turkey Zurich Protocols—Armenia and Azerbaijan have now initialed agreements that could pave the way for a historic breakthrough.

Guest Voices
MINISTRY DENIES RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOLDIERS WHO DIED IN CAVE
Security and Defense Aug 8, 2025

MINISTRY DENIES RESPONSIBILITY FOR SOLDIERS WHO DIED IN CAVE

The Defense Ministry has completed its investigation into the deaths of 12 soldiers who were exposed to methane gas in a cave in northern Iraq during a search operation on July 6, concluding that there was no evidence of negligence or misconduct on the part of the commanders involved in the incident.

Editorial Team
DEBATE ON FORMING KURDISH ISSUE COMMISSION ENDS AS NEW CLASHES BEGIN
Deep Dive Aug 1, 2025

DEBATE ON FORMING KURDISH ISSUE COMMISSION ENDS AS NEW CLASHES BEGIN

As of July 31, all parties represented in Turkish Parliament—except the İYİ Party—have appointed members to join the parliamentary commission on the Kurdish issue, ending debates over which parties would take seats. Attention now turns to the commission’s roadmap, including its official name, agenda, timeline, and decision-making rules. The İYİ Party’s decision to abstain from participation has complicated the calculation of an absolute majority. While Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş initially announced that the commission would have 51 members, the İYİ Party’s absence reduces the number to 48, raising debate over whether the three-fifths majority should be calculated based on 51 or 48 members.

Editorial Team
FİDAN UNEASY ABOUT INCREASING SCRUTINY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Aug 1, 2025

FİDAN UNEASY ABOUT INCREASING SCRUTINY

The debate kicked off following an article by journalist Zeynep Gürcanlı, who asked why Turkey did not join the statement issued by the Hague Group during their meeting in Bogota on July 16. Turkey was among 30 countries at the Bogota conference, yet opted not to sign the statement, which included measures against Israel. Among these measures are the denial of arms to Israel, a ban on ships transporting such arms, and a review of public contracts for possible links to companies that benefit from the Israeli occupation.

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