Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

ARABESK
Word of the Week Jan 10, 2025

ARABESK

The term “arabesk” (arabesque) originates from the Italian “arabesco,” (“in the Arabic style,”) initially describing ornate patterns featuring interlacing foliage and geometric designs. In Turkey, however, “arabesk” evolved beyond its artistic origins to signify a deeply emotive genre of music that emerged in the 1960s, blending Middle Eastern melodies with themes of longing, despair, and resilience.

Nazlan Ertan
CHALLENGES TURKEY WILL BE FACING IN SYRIA
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 20, 2024

CHALLENGES TURKEY WILL BE FACING IN SYRIA

Among the many challenges Turkey will face in Syria three stand out. The first stems from the Arab countries. The “Arab streets” are happy to see the end of the suffering of Syrian Arabs at the hands of a dictator. Yet this joy is hardly shared by their rulers. The survival of the Assad regime symbolized the failure of the Arab uprisings of 2011 as Arab leaders feared the movement of political Islam could hit home to challenge their rule.

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WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 13, 2024

WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?

Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus.   No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”

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EDUCATING YUSUF
Erospolis Nov 22, 2024

EDUCATING YUSUF

Hats off to Yusuf Tekin, Turkey’s controversial education minister, for cramming all of Turkey’s thorny subjects into a single speech and creating a debate that drew in political party leaders, actresses, and laymen. It was a performance to steal the limelight from Trump, let alone Erdoğan himself. The Erzurum-born minister, who launched a controversial new curriculum last year, traveled from Baku to Batman, where he presents his education strategy to a large audience. On Nov. 17, he attended COP29 in Baku, where he explained how environmental awareness was now part of the Turkish education system. His critics would say he referred to the controversial project called CEDES, an acronym for “I protect my environment and claim my values.” The project does have an environmental focus, but it also has a “religious values” component under which local imams and preachers are assigned to each school in the project to provide spiritual guidance for students.

Nazlan Ertan
MAARİF
Word of the Week Nov 22, 2024

MAARİF

Maarif (Education, noun) is derived from the basal root Arf in Arabic, meaning knowledge. In the Ottoman Empire and early years of the Turkish Republic, the Education Ministry was called “Maarif Vekaleti.”  In 1946, Maarif Vekaleti was rebaptized as “Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı,” using the modern Turkish word for both education and ministry and adding the term “national.”

Nazlan Ertan
CIVIL SOCIETY WANTS TURKEY TO HOST COP31, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM
Guest Voices Nov 22, 2024

CIVIL SOCIETY WANTS TURKEY TO HOST COP31, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM

As the world anticipates the outcome of the COP29 summit, which will end this week in Baku, Turkish audiences expect to hear the results of the COP31 bids. Turkey has announced its bid to host the 31st session of the climate summit in 2026. Yet the path to securing the event remains challenging, with its competitor, Australia, currently viewed as the frontrunner. At COP29 in Baku, Turkish officials are making an effort to capitalize on the familiar environment to secure a favorable decision on hosting COP31. While it remains unclear whether the host of COP31 will be decided at this summit, Ankara is actively lobbying for its candidacy, leveraging its proximity to Azerbaijan to strengthen its bid.

Editorial Team
THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT
Erospolis Nov 15, 2024

THE WINTER OF OUR DISCONTENT

The tragic story of five young children who perished in a house fire on Nov. 11 underlines the brutal toll of systemic poverty and neglect on society's most vulnerable. Left alone while their mother was out collecting scrap metal to survive, these children died after the electric heater, the only means to heat their makeshift home, went up in flames. Their short lives were tragically cut short not just by fire but by layers of systemic poverty and inadequate social support. The news of their death in Izmir came at a time when many - but not all - world leaders were at Baku for the COP29, making promises of inclusivity, pledging to 'leave no one behind' in addressing climate change, and vowing to secure sustainable development and environmental/social justice. The principle of leaving no one behind, fundamental to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, resonates with promises of justice, equality, and access to basic needs for all. Yet, the Izmir fire reveals that these are slogans on a page while the situation on the ground shows many without adequate housing, safety nets, and opportunities to escape poverty.

Nazlan Ertan
TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 15, 2024

TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN

When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall.  Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.

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IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 1, 2024

IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?

For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.

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ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?
Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan
İMAM NİKAHI
Word of the Week Nov 1, 2024

İMAM NİKAHI

İmam nikahı, or dini nikah (religious wedding), has long been a battleground for women’s rights activists who strongly oppose religious marriage and support strict penalties for imams and muftis (Muslim clergy) who conduct religious unions without first ensuring that the couple has undergone a civil ceremony. Turkey’s laws on marriage are regulated by the 1926 Civil Code, which abolished polygamy, introduced civil marriage, and mandated that any religious ceremony—should citizens of the newly established secular state choose to hold one—must follow civil registration in a municipal office. In villages, chieftains (elected officials) conduct the ceremony, while consular officers perform civil ceremonies for Turks abroad. Under the 1926 laws, religious officers—whether imams, priests, or rabbis in Turkey’s multi-faith society— had no authority to perform official weddings, as they cannot verify the legal requirements, such as the age of the would-be spouses or whether they are already married.

Nazlan Ertan
WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 11, 2024

WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN

When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.

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