Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
While Turkey and Iran were on opposite sides during the Syrian civil war, Israel's hostility to the new regime in Damascus appears to be pushing Ankara and Tehran closer as both define Israel as a threat to Syria’s stability.
In Turkish, the word hakem conjures, for the average football fan, the image of a man with a whistle — revered when he blows it in your favor, reviled when he doesn’t. Yet the word has a far deeper pedigree. Hakem comes from the Arabic ḥakam, meaning “one who judges,” sharing roots with hakim (judge or ruler) and hikmet (wisdom). The referee is, linguistically at least, meant to be a wise arbiter among impassioned players and fans — no small task given the layers of expectation and resentment attached to every call.
In Turkish, casus is the spy who slips through keyholes and whispers down telephone lines. In Ottoman Turkish, the word appears as câsûs, borrowed from Arabic, and, under Sultan Abdülhamid II’s watchful reign, it had a cousin, hafiyye, the “secret investigator” who made surveillance an imperial art.
Turkish democracy is the casualty of Europe’s rediscovery of Turkey’s strategic value. To better understand the context of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara next week, one has to go back to the end of the Cold War. Whereas European countries have benefited from the peace dividend, the contrary happened for Turkey in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain. After enjoying the relative stability of the bipolar order of the Cold War era, Turkey found itself in the midst of several conflict zones. While most European countries downsized their defense budgets, Turkey had no such luxury. The fight against separatist terrorism, the turbulence created by the Gulf War, and regional conflicts like the ones in the Caucasus dictated the maintenance of a big and well-equipped army.
For the past decade, Turkey’s Africa policy has favored partnership — co-designed projects, capacity building, and trade — over extractive habits associated with colonial legacies. Two countries once written off as “failed states,” Somalia and Burkina Faso, illustrate this shift. Both are edging back toward firmer state capacity under locally led agendas, with Turkey positioned as a security and development partner rather than a patron.
The Eastern Mediterranean has always been shaped by the interplay of northern and southern powers. From the time of the Hittites and Ancient Egyptians to the Ottomans and Mamluks, and through to the present day, control or influence over this region—from Mesopotamia to North Africa—has often rested with one or the other. When Turkey and Egypt were aligned, a degree of order and stability was possible. When they clashed, chaos ensued. History shows us that these two centers of power matter—and they still do today.
Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.
The Syrian government has requested support from Turkey to strengthen the country's defense capabilities and fight terrorist organizations, particularly Islamic State, the Defense Ministry said.
In Turkish, the term for ambassador has undergone a transformation as sweeping as the empire it once served. The old-fashioned word was “Sefir,” from the Arabic s‑f‑r root meaning “to bear a message,” and the highest rank was Sefir‑i Kebir—the Grand Envoy—complete with embroidered robes and horse-led fanfare. Today, the bureaucratic “Büyükelçi” literally means “great envoy,” yet, put in plain Turkish, it feels a little less illustrious.
In the great Turkish game of semantics, few words do more political heavy lifting than süreç. Literally “process,” süreç is the bureaucrat’s fig leaf, the politician’s magic wand, and the journalist’s catch-all term when no one knows quite what to call a thing. It conjures movement without a very clear or declared direction, change without rupture, action without accountability. You don’t fail a süreç—you just manage it, drag it, or rebrand it.
Ali Koç is the president of Fenerbahçe, one of Turkey’s “big three” football clubs, alongside Galatasaray and Beşiktaş. Recently, he was seen eating baklava ahead of Fenerbahçe’s EuroLeague basketball final match in Abu Dhabi. Former minister and current ruling party MP Mustafa Varank was feeding him the baklava, which had been brought from Turkey. Varank said the baklava had been “prayed over,” to which Koç responded with an “amen.” In Turkey, when something is said to be “prayed over,” it means it has been blessed.
The most important foreign policy development of this week was incontestably U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria during his visit to Saudi Arabia.