Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE
Portrait of the Week Mar 14, 2025

DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE

“Devletin Başına Devlet Gelecek” (The State Will Have Devlet as Its Leader). Do we still remember this slogan? How many of us do? It was the most important slogan the MHP created for their leader, Devlet Bahçeli. It has been more than ten years, maybe even longer, since this slogan was last heard. Many have linked its disappearance to Bahçeli’s and, consequently, MHP’s strong and open support for President Erdoğan since 2016. That might be true, but it cannot be explained by this alone.

Anonymous
İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK
Word of the Week Mar 14, 2025

İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK

The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment.  Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.

Editorial Team
WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 7, 2025

WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY

The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.

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WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 28, 2025

WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?

Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.

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TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey.  It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team
SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”
Portrait of the Week Feb 28, 2025

SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”

We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."

Anonymous
ABESLE İŞTİGAL
Word of the Week Feb 7, 2025

ABESLE İŞTİGAL

The phrase of the moment in Turkey is “abesle iştigal,” the very expression that the country’s word-savvy Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan used to dismiss U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to "take over Gaza" and transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In the colorful mosaic of Turkish, “abesle iştigal” conveys the sheer futility of engaging in pointless endeavors. The expression is even featured in Lûgat365, a project dedicated to preserving beautiful but near-forgotten words in Turkish.

Editorial Team
NEW CODES OF TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 31, 2025

NEW CODES OF TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY

When a Canadian camera was found in a downed Turkish drone in the war in Nagorno Karabakh, the Canadian government canceled the product’s export permit in April 2021.  “The use of technology in this way is inconsistent with Canada’s foreign policy and Turkey’s end-user commitments,” said the country’s then-foreign minister.

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U.S. DRILLS RATTLE TURKEY’S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS
Guest Voices Jan 31, 2025

U.S. DRILLS RATTLE TURKEY’S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS

Turkey, a major fossil fuel importer, will walk a fine line as Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sees the U.S. reviving its “energy dominance” policy—a policy widely anticipated to disrupt global energy dynamics. Characterized by ramping up fossil fuel production and expanding energy exports, the restored agenda, now under the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a prominent figure in the petroleum industry, will double down on fossil fuels, reversing the Biden administration’s renewable energy priorities.

Editorial Team
SATILMIŞ
Word of the Week Jan 31, 2025

SATILMIŞ

In the rich tapestry of Turkish names, few are as paradoxical as 'Satılmış.' Literally translating to 'sold' or 'sell-out,' this name carries a weighty connotation that intertwines cultural beliefs, societal perceptions and individual destinies. In Anatolian traditions, giving newborns names like 'Satılmış' or the female version “Satı” is a protective measure. The name was traditionally bestowed upon children with the underlying belief that by symbolically 'selling' the child, parents could deceive malevolent spirits or fate, thereby safeguarding the child from harm or premature death. This practice reflects an interplay between language, belief systems, and cultural practices in Anatolian societies.

Nazlan Ertan
YANGIN
Word of the Week Jan 24, 2025

YANGIN

In Turkey, the word “yangın” (fire) has been a literal and metaphorical agent of change, leaving lasting marks on cities, culture, and society. Fires frequently serve as dramatic turning points in Turkish popular culture, from the 1960 film “Fire,” an Ottoman-era period piece in which the daughter of a pasha falls for a tulumbacı (Ottoman firefighter), to the modern TV series “Cranberry Sorbet,”  which united estranged lovers after a tragic blaze. Adopting the usual satirical tone for the Word of the Week is impossible as the nation mourns after the Grand Kartal Hotel fire at the Kartalkaya ski resort in Bolu. The blaze, which began in the restaurant section and quickly engulfed the 12-story building, claimed at least 78 lives, including children on winter break, and injured 51 others.

Nazlan Ertan