Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

U.S. DRILLS RATTLE TURKEY’S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS
Guest Voices Jan 31, 2025

U.S. DRILLS RATTLE TURKEY’S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS

Turkey, a major fossil fuel importer, will walk a fine line as Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sees the U.S. reviving its “energy dominance” policy—a policy widely anticipated to disrupt global energy dynamics. Characterized by ramping up fossil fuel production and expanding energy exports, the restored agenda, now under the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a prominent figure in the petroleum industry, will double down on fossil fuels, reversing the Biden administration’s renewable energy priorities.

Editorial Team
YANGIN
Word of the Week Jan 24, 2025

YANGIN

In Turkey, the word “yangın” (fire) has been a literal and metaphorical agent of change, leaving lasting marks on cities, culture, and society. Fires frequently serve as dramatic turning points in Turkish popular culture, from the 1960 film “Fire,” an Ottoman-era period piece in which the daughter of a pasha falls for a tulumbacı (Ottoman firefighter), to the modern TV series “Cranberry Sorbet,”  which united estranged lovers after a tragic blaze. Adopting the usual satirical tone for the Word of the Week is impossible as the nation mourns after the Grand Kartal Hotel fire at the Kartalkaya ski resort in Bolu. The blaze, which began in the restaurant section and quickly engulfed the 12-story building, claimed at least 78 lives, including children on winter break, and injured 51 others.

Nazlan Ertan
SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 17, 2025

SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION

Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger.  “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.

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SİLKELEMEK
Word of the Week Dec 20, 2024

SİLKELEMEK

Silkelemek, or its shorthand version silkmek (shake-up, verb), carries energy, vigor, and occasionally a political punch. From its Ottoman roots to its modern interpretations, silkelemek has evolved into a word that shakes not only rugs and wrestlers but also bureaucracies, political rivals, and even dreams. At its core, silkelemek is a practical term. It conjures up vivid images of traditional housewives shaking rugs over balconies to rid them of dust. In Turkish dream interpretations, shaking a rug suggests a tranquil and orderly life, free of disruptions. It can also signify divine favor or answered prayers. Shake a rug off a balcony, and it symbolizes the achievement of long-pursued goals. Shake a dusty rug? Bid farewell to financial troubles. And if someone else shakes it for you? Expect wise decisions and peace of mind.

Editorial Team
WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 13, 2024

WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?

Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus.   No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”

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AĞIR ABİ
Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan
SYRIA WAR REIGNITES; WHAT’S IN IT FOR TURKEY?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 6, 2024

SYRIA WAR REIGNITES; WHAT’S IN IT FOR TURKEY?

The turn of events in Syria is related to three evolving issues: the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, and the upcoming Trump 2.0. Bashar al-Assad survived the civil war thanks to his powerful allies, Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have all been weakened.

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HALEP
Word of the Week Dec 6, 2024

HALEP

Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.

Nazlan Ertan
RETURNING HOME, COMING BACK TO LIFE
Guest Voices Dec 6, 2024

RETURNING HOME, COMING BACK TO LIFE

The Syrian opposition's major advances in the last ten days, especially the capture of Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria, caught not only the international community off guard but also surprised Syrians themselves. The opposition launched Operation “Deterrence of Aggression” on Nov. 27 to end the regime’s attacks on its strongholds in northwest Syria and facilitate the return of at least one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their towns in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. These towns had been captured by the regime in 2020 in violation of the Astana Process agreed upon by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The operation successfully achieved its planned objectives within the first four days. However, everything that has occurred since then has been unplanned and unexpected.

Editorial Team
NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES
Inside Turkey Nov 29, 2024

NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.

Editorial Team
EDUCATING YUSUF
Erospolis Nov 22, 2024

EDUCATING YUSUF

Hats off to Yusuf Tekin, Turkey’s controversial education minister, for cramming all of Turkey’s thorny subjects into a single speech and creating a debate that drew in political party leaders, actresses, and laymen. It was a performance to steal the limelight from Trump, let alone Erdoğan himself. The Erzurum-born minister, who launched a controversial new curriculum last year, traveled from Baku to Batman, where he presents his education strategy to a large audience. On Nov. 17, he attended COP29 in Baku, where he explained how environmental awareness was now part of the Turkish education system. His critics would say he referred to the controversial project called CEDES, an acronym for “I protect my environment and claim my values.” The project does have an environmental focus, but it also has a “religious values” component under which local imams and preachers are assigned to each school in the project to provide spiritual guidance for students.

Nazlan Ertan
MAARİF
Word of the Week Nov 22, 2024

MAARİF

Maarif (Education, noun) is derived from the basal root Arf in Arabic, meaning knowledge. In the Ottoman Empire and early years of the Turkish Republic, the Education Ministry was called “Maarif Vekaleti.”  In 1946, Maarif Vekaleti was rebaptized as “Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı,” using the modern Turkish word for both education and ministry and adding the term “national.”

Nazlan Ertan