Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

TRUMP’S SILENCE ON İMAMOĞLU DEEPENS ANKARA’S VULNERABILITIES
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 28, 2025

TRUMP’S SILENCE ON İMAMOĞLU DEEPENS ANKARA’S VULNERABILITIES

The cancellation of the Istanbul mayor’s diploma, followed by his arrest, came two days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone with U.S. President Donald Trump. For many, this was not a coincidence. This telephone conversation was underreported, according to Steve Witcoff. “Good news is coming from Turkey,” added Trump’s special envoy on March 22, when thousands had taken to the streets to protest the blatant assault against Turkish democracy.

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İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK
Word of the Week Mar 14, 2025

İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK

The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment.  Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.

Editorial Team
DİPLOMA
Word of the Week Feb 28, 2025

DİPLOMA

A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.

Nazlan Ertan
SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”
Portrait of the Week Feb 28, 2025

SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”

We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."

Anonymous
SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 17, 2025

SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION

Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger.  “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.

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AĞIR ABİ
Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan
ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?
Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan
CYPRUS TALKS: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU EXPECT NOTHING
Erospolis Oct 18, 2024

CYPRUS TALKS: WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU EXPECT NOTHING

NICOSIA—The New York dinner hosted by UN Secretary-General António Guterres for Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and his Turkish Cypriot counterpart Ersin Tatar managed to bring the two leaders together around a table, but reunification still seems a very distant prospect. “There wasn’t much on the menu,” quipped Tatar, speaking to Turkish journalists, including Turkey in Depth, in Nicosia after his return to the island. “Guterres himself said the main advantage of the meal at the UN headquarters was the view. I told him the view from the Turkish House [the headquarters of multiple Turkish diplomatic missions in the Big Apple] was far better.”

Editorial Team
CULTURAL OCTOBER
Erospolis Oct 4, 2024

CULTURAL OCTOBER

“When Turkish politics become too repetitive, I turn to the country’s art scene,” a European diplomat told me three years ago. “There is certainly more variety and more originality.” This year’s tension-wrought political rentrée, where debates revolved around “did they rise or did they not, for the president,” somehow made me follow her advice: When politics go wrong, seek consolation in art and culture.

Nazlan Ertan
LOVE HAS NO PLACE IN TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Sep 20, 2024

LOVE HAS NO PLACE IN TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY

When Hakan Fidan met the new recruits who passed the Foreign Ministry’s examinations in February, he told them not to marry foreigners. He has made his objections known since the first day he came to office in June 2023, complaining that the rate of Turkish diplomats married to a foreign national had reached 20 percent. He also made clear that while those already married to foreigners would not be discriminated against, from now on those who would marry foreigners would not be appointed to critical positions.

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