Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

AĞIR ABİ
Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan
SYRIA WAR REIGNITES; WHAT’S IN IT FOR TURKEY?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 6, 2024

SYRIA WAR REIGNITES; WHAT’S IN IT FOR TURKEY?

The turn of events in Syria is related to three evolving issues: the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, and the upcoming Trump 2.0. Bashar al-Assad survived the civil war thanks to his powerful allies, Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have all been weakened.

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HALEP
Word of the Week Dec 6, 2024

HALEP

Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.

Nazlan Ertan
RETURNING HOME, COMING BACK TO LIFE
Guest Voices Dec 6, 2024

RETURNING HOME, COMING BACK TO LIFE

The Syrian opposition's major advances in the last ten days, especially the capture of Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria, caught not only the international community off guard but also surprised Syrians themselves. The opposition launched Operation “Deterrence of Aggression” on Nov. 27 to end the regime’s attacks on its strongholds in northwest Syria and facilitate the return of at least one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their towns in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. These towns had been captured by the regime in 2020 in violation of the Astana Process agreed upon by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The operation successfully achieved its planned objectives within the first four days. However, everything that has occurred since then has been unplanned and unexpected.

Editorial Team
NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES
Inside Turkey Nov 29, 2024

NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.

Editorial Team
EDUCATING YUSUF
Erospolis Nov 22, 2024

EDUCATING YUSUF

Hats off to Yusuf Tekin, Turkey’s controversial education minister, for cramming all of Turkey’s thorny subjects into a single speech and creating a debate that drew in political party leaders, actresses, and laymen. It was a performance to steal the limelight from Trump, let alone Erdoğan himself. The Erzurum-born minister, who launched a controversial new curriculum last year, traveled from Baku to Batman, where he presents his education strategy to a large audience. On Nov. 17, he attended COP29 in Baku, where he explained how environmental awareness was now part of the Turkish education system. His critics would say he referred to the controversial project called CEDES, an acronym for “I protect my environment and claim my values.” The project does have an environmental focus, but it also has a “religious values” component under which local imams and preachers are assigned to each school in the project to provide spiritual guidance for students.

Nazlan Ertan
CIVIL SOCIETY WANTS TURKEY TO HOST COP31, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM
Guest Voices Nov 22, 2024

CIVIL SOCIETY WANTS TURKEY TO HOST COP31, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM

As the world anticipates the outcome of the COP29 summit, which will end this week in Baku, Turkish audiences expect to hear the results of the COP31 bids. Turkey has announced its bid to host the 31st session of the climate summit in 2026. Yet the path to securing the event remains challenging, with its competitor, Australia, currently viewed as the frontrunner. At COP29 in Baku, Turkish officials are making an effort to capitalize on the familiar environment to secure a favorable decision on hosting COP31. While it remains unclear whether the host of COP31 will be decided at this summit, Ankara is actively lobbying for its candidacy, leveraging its proximity to Azerbaijan to strengthen its bid.

Editorial Team
KUMAR
Inside Turkey Nov 15, 2024

KUMAR

Kumar (Gambling, noun) derives from Arabic and is forbidden in Islam, as spelled out in Surah al-Maidah of the Quran, where gambling is condemned alongside wine and idolatry. The aim? To incite enmity, foster distraction, and veer Muslims away from prayer. Fast forward to modern-day, secular Turkey, where gambling has made headlines once more. This time, TV personality Mehmet Ali Erbil and pop singer Serdar Ortaç, notorious for their sketchy reputations, were busted for illegal betting. The outcome? House arrest—a promising move for Erbil, an alleged serial harasser.

Nazlan Ertan
TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 15, 2024

TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN

When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall.  Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.

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KAYYUM
Word of the Week Nov 8, 2024

KAYYUM

Kayyum or Kayyım (trustee, noun) often crops up on the Turkish agenda like an unwelcome ex-chief at a political celebration. The English-language media has translated it as trustee, as in “Turkey sacked three mayors in the Kurdish-majority southeast on alleged 'terrorism' charges and replaced them with trustees.” But as with most things, context is key. The word is actually an exalted name in Islamic theology, describing an attribute of God: the eternal, self-sustaining one, who maintains all existence. The term implies omniscience and omnipotence—qualities far removed from the bureaucratic function of trustee appointments. In more everyday language, it’s also a term for a mosque custodian. But lately, Turkey’s government has repurposed the term, applying it to officials appointed to oversee (or seize) the operations of private companies, foundations, and -mostly- municipalities suspected of wrongdoing. It should not be confused with a guardian (vasi), whose role implies that the person they care for is legally incapable of managing their own affairs. Tanıl Bora, master of Turkish political terms, explains: “A guardian is appointed to a person, a kayyum to property.”

Nazlan Ertan
IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 1, 2024

IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?

For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.

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