Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

All Inside Turkey Foreign Affairs Economy and Finance Security and Defense Deep Dive Media & Culture Media, Internet and Culture Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Portrait of the Week Word of the Week Guest Voices Capital Currents Erospolis The Third Desk Poetic Licence
DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE
Portrait of the Week Mar 14, 2025

DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE

“Devletin Başına Devlet Gelecek” (The State Will Have Devlet as Its Leader). Do we still remember this slogan? How many of us do? It was the most important slogan the MHP created for their leader, Devlet Bahçeli. It has been more than ten years, maybe even longer, since this slogan was last heard. Many have linked its disappearance to Bahçeli’s and, consequently, MHP’s strong and open support for President Erdoğan since 2016. That might be true, but it cannot be explained by this alone.

Anonymous
İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK
Word of the Week Mar 14, 2025

İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK

The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment.  Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.

Editorial Team
WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 7, 2025

WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY

The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.

Barçın Yinanç
ALİ KIRAN BAŞKESEN
Word of the Week Mar 7, 2025

ALİ KIRAN BAŞKESEN

My grand-aunt never used the word 'zorba' to describe a bully, though it would be the first term to come to mind for many Turkish speakers. Instead, when one of the boys in the family became too combative, she would say, 'What are you, a small 'Ali Kıran Başkesen'?' The phrase, which translates literally as 'Ali who crashes things and cuts heads,' is a Turkish term for an authoritarian bully. It derives from the proverb 'Dalı kıran, baş keser' ('Whoever cuts a branch cuts a head'), originally a cautionary ecological metaphor that somehow evolved into the ultimate descriptor for an overbearing strongman.

Nazlan Ertan
TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey.  It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team
DİPLOMA
Word of the Week Feb 28, 2025

DİPLOMA

A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.

Nazlan Ertan
SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”
Portrait of the Week Feb 28, 2025

SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”

We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."

Anonymous
ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ
Portrait of the Week Feb 21, 2025

ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ

“The first political party leader to be arrested since the September 12, 1980, military coup era after Selahattin Demirtaş.” The arrest of Zafer Party Chair Ümit Özdağ was reported in the media with this headline. However, there is no other similarity that would warrant him being mentioned in the same sentence as Demirtaş. In fact, they belong to entirely different worlds and are entirely opposing figures. Özdağ has been in custody at Silivri Prison for a month since Jan. 21, 2025.

Anonymous
AYAZDA KALMAK
Word of the Week Feb 14, 2025

AYAZDA KALMAK

The word of the week is “ayazda kalmak,” literally translated as “being left out in the cold.” This phrase conveys the sting of exclusion, akin to the English “getting the cold shoulder.” It vividly portrays the experience of feeling neglected or overlooked, much like standing outside on a frosty night while others bask in warmth within. This colloquial idiom recently gained attention following a gathering of the CHP's “Big Three” on Feb. 9. CHP Chair Özgür Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş convened to discuss whether the party should hold primary elections to determine its presidential candidate (Check Deep Dive for more). The photo from the meeting showed the three seated at a table by a fireplace, their notepads open, smiling convivially—your standard political meeting photo. No official statements were made.

Nazlan Ertan
SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 7, 2025

SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY

When Syria’s new foreign minister chose to go to Saudi Arabia and Qatar for his first international visits before coming to Turkey, the main opposition party criticized the government, asking why Asaad al-Shaibani did not choose to reciprocate the visits of the Turkish foreign minister who went to Damascus two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. For experts, this was only natural since Syria is first and foremost an Arab country and prioritizing relations with Turkey would have caused irritation among Arab capitals. In addition, while Turkey is struggling with its own economic hardships, Syria’s new rulers need Gulf money to get the country on its feet.

Barçın Yinanç
ABESLE İŞTİGAL
Word of the Week Feb 7, 2025

ABESLE İŞTİGAL

The phrase of the moment in Turkey is “abesle iştigal,” the very expression that the country’s word-savvy Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan used to dismiss U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to "take over Gaza" and transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In the colorful mosaic of Turkish, “abesle iştigal” conveys the sheer futility of engaging in pointless endeavors. The expression is even featured in Lûgat365, a project dedicated to preserving beautiful but near-forgotten words in Turkish.

Editorial Team