Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

All Inside Turkey Foreign Affairs Economy and Finance Security and Defense Deep Dive Media & Culture Media, Internet and Culture Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Portrait of the Week Word of the Week Guest Voices Capital Currents Erospolis The Third Desk Poetic Licence
TURKEY’S SYRIA DILEMMA
Guest Voices Jul 25, 2025

TURKEY’S SYRIA DILEMMA

Turkey and the U.S. were the key backers of HTS - a former offshoot of ISIS turned Western ally - in its surprise victory over the Bashar Al-Assad regime in December. Ankara hoped this would give it a role in rebuilding Syria under the HTS and also help eliminate the PYD/YPG threat in north-eastern Syria. However, neither goal materialized. Only seven months after the power change in Damascus, it is not Turkey, but Israel, followed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that are now influential in Syria. Although Turkey remains dominant in the occupied northern strips of Syria, it failed to establish new bases, let alone an airbase in mid-Syria, because of Israel’s opposition.

Guest Voices
TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey.  It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team
SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 7, 2025

SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY

When Syria’s new foreign minister chose to go to Saudi Arabia and Qatar for his first international visits before coming to Turkey, the main opposition party criticized the government, asking why Asaad al-Shaibani did not choose to reciprocate the visits of the Turkish foreign minister who went to Damascus two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. For experts, this was only natural since Syria is first and foremost an Arab country and prioritizing relations with Turkey would have caused irritation among Arab capitals. In addition, while Turkey is struggling with its own economic hardships, Syria’s new rulers need Gulf money to get the country on its feet.

Barçın Yinanç
CHALLENGES TURKEY WILL BE FACING IN SYRIA
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 20, 2024

CHALLENGES TURKEY WILL BE FACING IN SYRIA

Among the many challenges Turkey will face in Syria three stand out. The first stems from the Arab countries. The “Arab streets” are happy to see the end of the suffering of Syrian Arabs at the hands of a dictator. Yet this joy is hardly shared by their rulers. The survival of the Assad regime symbolized the failure of the Arab uprisings of 2011 as Arab leaders feared the movement of political Islam could hit home to challenge their rule.

Barçın Yinanç
WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Dec 13, 2024

WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?

Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus.   No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”

Barçın Yinanç