Nergis Demirkaya

Following the PKK’s decision to lay down arms, the newly launched “peace process” has become tangled up in tensions over Syria. The military operation by the Damascus regime that pushed the SDF/YPG out of two Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo has strained relations between the AKP–MHP alliance and the DEM Party, ending a cautious rapprochement as part of the process. It has also disrupted a positive atmosphere that had lasted for nearly a year, raising fresh doubts about the prospects of success.

The “new peace process” began with convention-shattering moves such as granting the “right to hope” to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and, after 15 months, is now not even back where it started. In fact, it has probably moved backward.

The new civil constitution that the AKP has been calling for since the 2023 elections is set to become one of the key issues in the new year. Revising the presidential system, addressing the needs of a new peace process, and — inevitably — paving the way for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed candidacy are the main pillars of this process. But any such changes would first require consensus within the party, and then support from the opposition.

The political parties represented in the parliamentary commission — tasked with supervising the Terror-Free Turkey initiative — have started submitting their reports to the speaker of Parliament. But both the governing bloc and the opposition appear far from agreeing on a common “solution law.”

In 2020, the CHP held a “Power Congress” under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership; five years later, the party is heading into another congress — this time under the leadership of Özgür Özel and with the slogan “Now Is the Time for Power.” After that congress, held with the claim that the party was on its way to power, Kılıçdaroğlu, now 76, not only lost the 2023 elections but also the CHP chairmanship. Now Özel, in only his third year as a chair at 51, is convening a congress with his own claim to power.

This marks the third attempt to persuade the PKK to lay down arms during the AKP’s 23-year rule.

Excluding their early courtship phase, the AKP and MHP have now completed seven years of formal partnership. In their partnership, branded the “People’s Alliance,” the two parties have gone through five electoral contests — one referendum, two general elections, and two local elections. Like any relationship, this one has had its ups and downs. Many of the rifts that the public interpreted as “cracks” or “crises” within the alliance were quickly smoothed over through mutual statements. But, the crisis of the past two weeks has been among the deepest since the alliance was formed.

With the “change” endorsement from Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, Özgür Özel became CHP chair and will mark his second year in office in just ten days. Many see this as the “most difficult two years” in the party’s 102-year history, as policies were revised and key positions changed. While also battling lawsuits to annul its congress and ongoing operations against municipalities, the CHP seems poised to fight on new fronts—starting with the possible lifting of parliamentary immunities—as the election calendar nears.

During a party debate, veteran AKP politician Bülent Arınç once distinguished himself from his comrades by declaring, “I have a certain weight of my own.” Though Arınç’s own weight has faded over the past decade, if one were to search for true “political weight” in today’s Turkey, one name stands out above all: Devlet Bahçeli. Having led the MHP for 28 years, Bahçeli has always been a force shaping Turkish politics—but in recent years, as part of the ruling People’s Alliance, he has become almost the determining factor in many critical decisions.

As politics remains focused on CHP, the resignation of eight provincial chairs from the ruling AKP has prompted the question: What is happening on the government side? The resignations of the provincial chairs of Çanakkale, Niğde, Adıyaman, Elazığ, Muğla, Ordu, Bitlis, and Tunceli—submitted within just 48 hours—were followed by statements from the party headquarters stressing that this was merely a “change of duties to take the party forward” and that “no criminal situation is involved.”