Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

ULTRANATIONALIST RIFT OVER COMMISSION DEEPENS
Inside Turkey Aug 8, 2025

ULTRANATIONALIST RIFT OVER COMMISSION DEEPENS

A political feud has erupted between Turkey’s two largest ultranationalist parties—the MHP and its breakaway rival the İYİ Party—over the establishment of a parliamentary commission tasked with preparing for the potential disarmament of the PKK.

Editorial Team
HOW WILL THE PKK’S DISARMAMENT SHAPE POLITICS?
Capital Currents Aug 1, 2025

HOW WILL THE PKK’S DISARMAMENT SHAPE POLITICS?

The dissolution and disarmament of the PKK, so far managed through security institutions, will be brought to Parliament’s agenda next week through a newly established commission. Although framed as “above politics” and “beyond party interests,” the “process” is creating new political maneuvering room for all parties. From the government to the opposition, political actors are repositioning themselves and recalculating strategies with an eye on the 2028 elections.

Nergis Demirkaya
DEBATE ON FORMING KURDISH ISSUE COMMISSION ENDS AS NEW CLASHES BEGIN
Deep Dive Aug 1, 2025

DEBATE ON FORMING KURDISH ISSUE COMMISSION ENDS AS NEW CLASHES BEGIN

As of July 31, all parties represented in Turkish Parliament—except the İYİ Party—have appointed members to join the parliamentary commission on the Kurdish issue, ending debates over which parties would take seats. Attention now turns to the commission’s roadmap, including its official name, agenda, timeline, and decision-making rules. The İYİ Party’s decision to abstain from participation has complicated the calculation of an absolute majority. While Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş initially announced that the commission would have 51 members, the İYİ Party’s absence reduces the number to 48, raising debate over whether the three-fifths majority should be calculated based on 51 or 48 members.

Editorial Team
CHP’S RELENTLESS RALLIES FAIL TO SWAY CORRUPTION PROBE
Inside Turkey Aug 1, 2025

CHP’S RELENTLESS RALLIES FAIL TO SWAY CORRUPTION PROBE

Since Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention on March 19, the CHP has held 40 rallies despite no upcoming elections, yet failed to shift the political agenda. The party opened İmamoğlu’s first campaign office in its Çankaya stronghold in Ankara, only to see its provincial chair dismissed days later. Though operations against Istanbul Municipality slowed, confessions from businessperson Aziz İhsan Aktaş continue to dominate headlines. A fresh wave of arrests targeted subsidiaries ISFALT and IETT, as well as tender officials.

Editorial Team
PARLIAMENT IN FLUX AS PARTY SHIFTS ACCELERATE
Inside Turkey Jul 25, 2025

PARLIAMENT IN FLUX AS PARTY SHIFTS ACCELERATE

The arithmetic in the Turkish Parliament is shifting rapidly, as party defections mount. Since the May 2023 elections, 35 lawmakers have resigned from their parties, significantly altering the composition of parliament. The İYİ Party has shrunk from 43 to 29 MPs; DEVA has dropped from 15 to 9; and Gelecek from 10 to 4. Of the defectors, 11 joined the AKP and 10 moved to the CHP. Fourteen now sit as independents.

Editorial Team
TURKEY RESHAPES OIL TIES WITH IRAQ
Foreign Affairs Jul 25, 2025

TURKEY RESHAPES OIL TIES WITH IRAQ

After a decision to terminate the 1973 crude oil pipeline agreement with Iraq as of July 27, 2026, Turkey started negotiations with the Iraqi central government for a more comprehensive agreement on the transportation of Iraqi oil. The move is not a withdrawal from the partnership but a strategic reset. Under the 1973 agreement and its supplementary protocols, either party must notify the other at least one year before expiry if it intends to terminate the deal. If no such notice is given, the contract automatically renews for five years. Turkey has now officially informed Iraq of its intent to withdraw, preventing automatic renewal and opening space for renegotiation.

Editorial Team
CO-CHAIR: DEM WILL REMAIN IN OPPOSITION REGARDLESS OF PROCESS OUTCOME
Inside Turkey Jul 25, 2025

CO-CHAIR: DEM WILL REMAIN IN OPPOSITION REGARDLESS OF PROCESS OUTCOME

Ahead of CHP’s hesitations to join the parliamentary commission, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan said that the party will maintain its opposition identity even if the process is successful. Bakırhan stated that the matter will eventually be brought before the DEM and that they will not approve the constitutional amendment if it does not satisfy their demands regarding the Kurdish issue, democratization, women's rights, youth, Alevis' right to equal citizenship, economic justice, and the environment.

Editorial Team
IF THE PKK IS CHANGING, WHY CAN’T THE DEM PARTY?
Capital Currents Jul 18, 2025

IF THE PKK IS CHANGING, WHY CAN’T THE DEM PARTY?

After 47 years, the PKK has decided to disband and lay down arms. According to the group’s founder, Abdullah Öcalan, this marks a paradigm shift: the struggle will now continue through strengthened political engagement. Following what both the government and opposition have called a “historic” decision, change is now expected within the DEM Party—the Kurdish political movement’s representative in Turkish Parliament. As one MP who recently visited Öcalan on İmralı Island put it: “Even the PKK is changing—why wouldn’t the DEM Party?”

Nergis Demirkaya
DEM PARTY DENIES ERDOĞAN’S ‘TRIPLE ALLIANCE’ CLAIM
Deep Dive Jul 15, 2025

DEM PARTY DENIES ERDOĞAN’S ‘TRIPLE ALLIANCE’ CLAIM

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s remark about a “triple alliance” between the AKP, MHP, and DEM Party has drawn a sharp rebuke from DEM Co-Chair Tülay Hatimoğulları, who said the comment misrepresented the party’s role in the ongoing disarmament process.

Editorial Team