Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

AYAZDA KALMAK
Word of the Week Feb 14, 2025

AYAZDA KALMAK

The word of the week is “ayazda kalmak,” literally translated as “being left out in the cold.” This phrase conveys the sting of exclusion, akin to the English “getting the cold shoulder.” It vividly portrays the experience of feeling neglected or overlooked, much like standing outside on a frosty night while others bask in warmth within. This colloquial idiom recently gained attention following a gathering of the CHP's “Big Three” on Feb. 9. CHP Chair Özgür Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş convened to discuss whether the party should hold primary elections to determine its presidential candidate (Check Deep Dive for more). The photo from the meeting showed the three seated at a table by a fireplace, their notepads open, smiling convivially—your standard political meeting photo. No official statements were made.

Nazlan Ertan
ABESLE İŞTİGAL
Word of the Week Feb 7, 2025

ABESLE İŞTİGAL

The phrase of the moment in Turkey is “abesle iştigal,” the very expression that the country’s word-savvy Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan used to dismiss U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to "take over Gaza" and transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In the colorful mosaic of Turkish, “abesle iştigal” conveys the sheer futility of engaging in pointless endeavors. The expression is even featured in Lûgat365, a project dedicated to preserving beautiful but near-forgotten words in Turkish.

Editorial Team
TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 10, 2025

TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE

The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

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ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 3, 2025

ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA

Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.  As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.

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AĞIR ABİ
Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan
NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES
Inside Turkey Nov 29, 2024

NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.

Editorial Team
ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?
Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan
NEW GANG, OLD CORRUPTION
Erospolis Oct 25, 2024

NEW GANG, OLD CORRUPTION

A week after the revelation of a scandal involving a criminal network that reaped profits by exploiting newborn babies, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan vowed on Oct. 22 to take swift action. “As president of the republic, I will ensure that those monsters who destroyed the lives of babies never see the light of day again,” he pledged.  The “Newborn Gang” scandal has cast a shadow over Erdoğan’s healthcare policies, a critical electoral stronghold for his Islamist-populist AKP.

Nazlan Ertan
CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 18, 2024

CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s upcoming visit to Athens comes at a moment of some confusion about Turkey’s relations with Greece. The status of bilateral ties came under scrutiny after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece on the sidelines of annual UN summit in New York in September.

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WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Oct 11, 2024

WARS IN UKRAINE AND GAZA LEADS TO A POLICY SHIFT WITH BERLIN

When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.

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CULTURAL OCTOBER
Erospolis Oct 4, 2024

CULTURAL OCTOBER

“When Turkish politics become too repetitive, I turn to the country’s art scene,” a European diplomat told me three years ago. “There is certainly more variety and more originality.” This year’s tension-wrought political rentrée, where debates revolved around “did they rise or did they not, for the president,” somehow made me follow her advice: When politics go wrong, seek consolation in art and culture.

Nazlan Ertan