AS TIME GOES BY … IN DAVOS
The Casablanca line everyone remembers wrong is: “Play it again, Sam.” The film doesn’t actually include that. What Ilsa Lund says in the movie is quieter and more revealing: “Play it, Sam… Play ‘As Time Goes By.’”
Analysis
In-Depth Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
WHY TURKEY IS STUCK IN THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP
At the turn of the year, a familiar ritual repeats itself in Turkey. Gyms raise their membership fees. Tradespeople adjust their prices. Real estate agents pocket higher commissions by systematically pushing up sale prices. Hardly anyone objects. Hardly anyone asks what added value is being offered. Price hikes are taken for granted — not because products have improved, but because inflation exists.
WOUNDS BANDAGED, SCARS REMAIN: WHERE IS THE PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE HEADED?
Excluding their early courtship phase, the AKP and MHP have now completed seven years of formal partnership. In their partnership, branded the “People’s Alliance,” the two parties have gone through five electoral contests — one referendum, two general elections, and two local elections. Like any relationship, this one has had its ups and downs. Many of the rifts that the public interpreted as “cracks” or “crises” within the alliance were quickly smoothed over through mutual statements. But, the crisis of the past two weeks has been among the deepest since the alliance was formed.
KAAN PROJECT HIT BY U.S. SANCTIONS
Trumpeting that Turkey is on the way to making its fighter jet Kaan, Turkey faced the reality that it was impossible to produce them by 2028, the expected election year, as promised to the public. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan acknowledged that the future of the project depends on the U.S. Congress and U.S. CAATSA sanctions imposed on Turkey. Fidan’s goals and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s knowledge of the situation topped the agenda.
EIGHT AKP PROVINCIAL CHAIRS STEP DOWN: WHAT DOES THE SHAKE-UP MEAN?
As politics remains focused on CHP, the resignation of eight provincial chairs from the ruling AKP has prompted the question: What is happening on the government side? The resignations of the provincial chairs of Çanakkale, Niğde, Adıyaman, Elazığ, Muğla, Ordu, Bitlis, and Tunceli—submitted within just 48 hours—were followed by statements from the party headquarters stressing that this was merely a “change of duties to take the party forward” and that “no criminal situation is involved.”
CO-CHAIR: DEM WILL REMAIN IN OPPOSITION REGARDLESS OF PROCESS OUTCOME
Ahead of CHP’s hesitations to join the parliamentary commission, DEM Party Co-Chair Tuncer Bakırhan said that the party will maintain its opposition identity even if the process is successful. Bakırhan stated that the matter will eventually be brought before the DEM and that they will not approve the constitutional amendment if it does not satisfy their demands regarding the Kurdish issue, democratization, women's rights, youth, Alevis' right to equal citizenship, economic justice, and the environment.
MUTUAL GESTURES EXPECTED AS PROCESS EVOLVES
Former HDP Co-Chair Mithat Sancar described the government’s “Terror-Free Turkey” initiative as unique, “a process that differs from global conflict resolution practices. If successful, it will enter the world’s academic literature,” he said.
HOW WILL THE TRUMP TARIFF HIKES IMPACT TURKEY?
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China. Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.
İHTİYATLI İYİMSERLİK
The word of the week is “ihtiyatlı iyimserlik,” literally, “cautious optimism.” A staple of diplomatic jargon, the phrase allows diplomats, speechwriters, and strategists to sound hopeful without making any actual commitment. Last week alone, the term was trotted out as a reaction to the latest Damascus-SDF agreement, the ever-elusive prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, and Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa’s pledge to establish an independent commission to bring those responsible for civilian killings in Latakia and Tartus to justice. And, yes, we are also cautiously optimistic about PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s calls to dissolve PKK and lay down arms, too.
TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey. It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.
SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”
We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."
AĞIR ABİ
In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”