Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS A LA MODE?
Guest Voices Apr 18, 2025

CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS A LA MODE?

The Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been on the radar of those who follow international relations due to two recent developments.  Traditionally, the Central Asian Republics, rich in natural resources in a geo-strategic location, have been in the Russian sphere of influence and Russia still tries to exert dominance over them. However, nearly all have started to diversify their relations with third countries and regional groupings such as China, the U.S., the EU and Turkey.

Editorial Team
MAHMUT TANAL: SOUNDING THE SIREN
Portrait of the Week Apr 11, 2025

MAHMUT TANAL: SOUNDING THE SIREN

What is an ambulance for? What role does it play in our lives? An ambulance is a vehicle to transfer patients and the injured between hospitals. It also carries a team and equipment capable of providing urgent medical care. Because of the critical condition of those it transports, it moves through traffic with its sirens blaring. Very well, and who is Mahmut Tanal? What role does he play in our lives? And what does he have to do with an ambulance? Tanal is an MP from the CHP. A lawyer.

Anonymous
TURKISH DIPLOMACY IN RETREAT
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Apr 11, 2025

TURKISH DIPLOMACY IN RETREAT

In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations. As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.

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HOW WILL THE TRUMP TARIFF HIKES IMPACT TURKEY?
Guest Voices Apr 11, 2025

HOW WILL THE TRUMP TARIFF HIKES IMPACT TURKEY?

Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continue to shake the global economy and wreak havoc. Although President Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries on April 9, letting markets soar after days of economic turmoil, he decided to hit China with further tariffs of an unprecedented 125%. There is no question that this will deepen the trade war with China.   Regardless of the tariff pause, all major countries are still reflecting on worst-case scenarios. It is highly disputable whether President Trump will achieve his declared goal of striking fair and balanced trade deals with America’s partners. Let us hope that common sense will prevail and tariffs will be mutually lowered to reasonable levels through negotiations. However, given President Trump’s dithering, there is nothing but turmoil and chaos to be expected on the horizon.

Editorial Team
MAHİR POLAT CASE: “SAVING THE CITY FROM DEATH”
Portrait of the Week Apr 4, 2025

MAHİR POLAT CASE: “SAVING THE CITY FROM DEATH”

We begin with a cliché frequently heard in a negative context when discussing Turkey’s political and social developments: “This can’t be happening too!”  During the operation targeting Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, nearly 100 people—one of them Mahir Polat—were detained. Who is Mahir Polat? He is the deputy secretary general of the municipality and a close member of İmamoğlu’s core team. That much may be understandable. But Polat’s imprisonment triggered yet another “this can’t be happening” moment.

Anonymous
DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE
Portrait of the Week Mar 14, 2025

DEVLET BAHÇELİ’S TABLE

“Devletin Başına Devlet Gelecek” (The State Will Have Devlet as Its Leader). Do we still remember this slogan? How many of us do? It was the most important slogan the MHP created for their leader, Devlet Bahçeli. It has been more than ten years, maybe even longer, since this slogan was last heard. Many have linked its disappearance to Bahçeli’s and, consequently, MHP’s strong and open support for President Erdoğan since 2016. That might be true, but it cannot be explained by this alone.

Anonymous
WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 28, 2025

WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?

Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.

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TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey.  It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team
DİPLOMA
Word of the Week Feb 28, 2025

DİPLOMA

A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.

Nazlan Ertan
SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”
Portrait of the Week Feb 28, 2025

SERAP YAZICI ÖZBUDUN: “FOR THE REASON I SAW”

We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."

Anonymous
AYAZDA KALMAK
Word of the Week Feb 14, 2025

AYAZDA KALMAK

The word of the week is “ayazda kalmak,” literally translated as “being left out in the cold.” This phrase conveys the sting of exclusion, akin to the English “getting the cold shoulder.” It vividly portrays the experience of feeling neglected or overlooked, much like standing outside on a frosty night while others bask in warmth within. This colloquial idiom recently gained attention following a gathering of the CHP's “Big Three” on Feb. 9. CHP Chair Özgür Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş convened to discuss whether the party should hold primary elections to determine its presidential candidate (Check Deep Dive for more). The photo from the meeting showed the three seated at a table by a fireplace, their notepads open, smiling convivially—your standard political meeting photo. No official statements were made.

Nazlan Ertan