Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders met under the facilitation of United Nations Secretary-General’s personal envoy, María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, on Dec. 11. Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides reportedly agreed to expedite a series of confidence-building measures. Talks to resolve the decadeslong Cyprus issue are unlikely to gain traction before mid-2026, as both the north and south prepare for critical elections.
In 2020, the CHP held a “Power Congress” under Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership; five years later, the party is heading into another congress — this time under the leadership of Özgür Özel and with the slogan “Now Is the Time for Power.” After that congress, held with the claim that the party was on its way to power, Kılıçdaroğlu, now 76, not only lost the 2023 elections but also the CHP chairmanship. Now Özel, in only his third year as a chair at 51, is convening a congress with his own claim to power.
Excluding their early courtship phase, the AKP and MHP have now completed seven years of formal partnership. In their partnership, branded the “People’s Alliance,” the two parties have gone through five electoral contests — one referendum, two general elections, and two local elections. Like any relationship, this one has had its ups and downs. Many of the rifts that the public interpreted as “cracks” or “crises” within the alliance were quickly smoothed over through mutual statements. But, the crisis of the past two weeks has been among the deepest since the alliance was formed.
The dissolution and disarmament of the PKK, so far managed through security institutions, will be brought to Parliament’s agenda next week through a newly established commission. Although framed as “above politics” and “beyond party interests,” the “process” is creating new political maneuvering room for all parties. From the government to the opposition, political actors are repositioning themselves and recalculating strategies with an eye on the 2028 elections.
Since Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention on March 19, the CHP has held 40 rallies despite no upcoming elections, yet failed to shift the political agenda. The party opened İmamoğlu’s first campaign office in its Çankaya stronghold in Ankara, only to see its provincial chair dismissed days later. Though operations against Istanbul Municipality slowed, confessions from businessperson Aziz İhsan Aktaş continue to dominate headlines. A fresh wave of arrests targeted subsidiaries ISFALT and IETT, as well as tender officials.
The arithmetic in the Turkish Parliament is shifting rapidly, as party defections mount. Since the May 2023 elections, 35 lawmakers have resigned from their parties, significantly altering the composition of parliament. The İYİ Party has shrunk from 43 to 29 MPs; DEVA has dropped from 15 to 9; and Gelecek from 10 to 4. Of the defectors, 11 joined the AKP and 10 moved to the CHP. Fourteen now sit as independents.
The paths of Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mehmet Murat Çalık first crossed in 2014. İmamoğlu had just been elected mayor of Beylikdüzü. Çalık began working with him as deputy mayor. In 2019, when İmamoğlu became Mayor of Istanbul, Çalık was elected mayor of Beylikdüzü in the same elections.
Naci Bostancı is an academic—political scientist, sociologist, and communications scholar. He currently serves as the rector of Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University. But that’s not the whole story. For many years, he was a member of parliament, holding senior roles within the ruling AKP. At one point, he even occupied the position of second-in-command after President Erdoğan within the party hierarchy. In the 2023 elections, he chose not to run again and returned to academia.
'Whoever loses Istanbul also loses Turkey.' These are the words of President Erdoğan. When did he say it? Eight years ago. Who was he addressing? His own party members, who had begun to sense that the spell was breaking, and realize that things were not going well. If we read this statement in reverse, the conclusion is clear: 'Whoever wins Istanbul also wins Turkey.' Since making this statement, Erdoğan has lost Istanbul twice. In the 2019 and 2024 local elections, the opposition took control of the city.
The word of the week is “ayazda kalmak,” literally translated as “being left out in the cold.” This phrase conveys the sting of exclusion, akin to the English “getting the cold shoulder.” It vividly portrays the experience of feeling neglected or overlooked, much like standing outside on a frosty night while others bask in warmth within. This colloquial idiom recently gained attention following a gathering of the CHP's “Big Three” on Feb. 9. CHP Chair Özgür Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş convened to discuss whether the party should hold primary elections to determine its presidential candidate (Check Deep Dive for more). The photo from the meeting showed the three seated at a table by a fireplace, their notepads open, smiling convivially—your standard political meeting photo. No official statements were made.
Donald Trump won the presidential elections just as Turkey witnessed a new wave of elected mayors being replaced by trustees. A leader who threatens retribution against his political enemies will be ruling one of the world’s supposedly most democratic countries.
For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.