Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Tom Barrack, now appointed as special envoy to Iraq in addition to his ambassadorial role in Turkey and special envoy role in Syria, described Iraq, Syria, and Turkey as 'the strategic fulcrum upon which any enduring Middle East stability must pivot,' calling for a single, consistent point of American contact across the three nations.
The Middle East is no longer simmering — it is boiling over. The genocide being carried out in Gaza, the attacks on the West Bank, the incursion into Syria, and the devastating assault on Lebanon have cemented one uncomfortable truth that much of the world is now willing to state openly: Israel has become the primary driver of instability in the region.
While Turkey and Iran were on opposite sides during the Syrian civil war, Israel's hostility to the new regime in Damascus appears to be pushing Ankara and Tehran closer as both define Israel as a threat to Syria’s stability.
Turkish democracy is the casualty of Europe’s rediscovery of Turkey’s strategic value. To better understand the context of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara next week, one has to go back to the end of the Cold War. Whereas European countries have benefited from the peace dividend, the contrary happened for Turkey in the aftermath of the fall of the Iron Curtain. After enjoying the relative stability of the bipolar order of the Cold War era, Turkey found itself in the midst of several conflict zones. While most European countries downsized their defense budgets, Turkey had no such luxury. The fight against separatist terrorism, the turbulence created by the Gulf War, and regional conflicts like the ones in the Caucasus dictated the maintenance of a big and well-equipped army.
The Eastern Mediterranean has always been shaped by the interplay of northern and southern powers. From the time of the Hittites and Ancient Egyptians to the Ottomans and Mamluks, and through to the present day, control or influence over this region—from Mesopotamia to North Africa—has often rested with one or the other. When Turkey and Egypt were aligned, a degree of order and stability was possible. When they clashed, chaos ensued. History shows us that these two centers of power matter—and they still do today.
Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger. “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.