Analysis – Turkey In Depth – Smart, informed focus on the stories that matter

Guest Voices Jan 31, 2025

U.S. DRILLS RATTLE TURKEY’S ENERGY ASPIRATIONS

Turkey, a major fossil fuel importer, will walk a fine line as Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sees the U.S. reviving its “energy dominance” policy—a policy widely anticipated to disrupt global energy dynamics. Characterized by ramping up fossil fuel production and expanding energy exports, the restored agenda, now under the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a prominent figure in the petroleum industry, will double down on fossil fuels, reversing the Biden administration’s renewable energy priorities.

Editorial Team

Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 17, 2025

SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION

Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger. “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.

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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 10, 2025

TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE

The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.

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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Jan 3, 2025

ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA

Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.

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Word of the Week Dec 13, 2024

AĞIR ABİ

In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”

Nazlan Ertan

Word of the Week Dec 6, 2024

HALEP

Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.

Nazlan Ertan

Inside Turkey Nov 29, 2024

NATO AND TRUMP: AMERICAN INTERESTS VS EUROPEAN PRIORITIES

President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.

Editorial Team

Erospolis Nov 22, 2024

EDUCATING YUSUF

Hats off to Yusuf Tekin, Turkey’s controversial education minister, for cramming all of Turkey’s thorny subjects into a single speech and creating a debate that drew in political party leaders, actresses, and laymen. It was a performance to steal the limelight from Trump, let alone Erdoğan himself. The Erzurum-born minister, who launched a controversial new curriculum last year, traveled from Baku to Batman, where he presents his education strategy to a large audience. On Nov. 17, he attended COP29 in Baku, where he explained how environmental awareness was now part of the Turkish education system. His critics would say he referred to the controversial project called CEDES, an acronym for “I protect my environment and claim my values.” The project does have an environmental focus, but it also has a “religious values” component under which local imams and preachers are assigned to each school in the project to provide spiritual guidance for students.

Nazlan Ertan

Guest Voices Nov 22, 2024

CIVIL SOCIETY WANTS TURKEY TO HOST COP31, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIM

As the world anticipates the outcome of the COP29 summit, which will end this week in Baku, Turkish audiences expect to hear the results of the COP31 bids. Turkey has announced its bid to host the 31st session of the climate summit in 2026. Yet the path to securing the event remains challenging, with its competitor, Australia, currently viewed as the frontrunner. At COP29 in Baku, Turkish officials are making an effort to capitalize on the familiar environment to secure a favorable decision on hosting COP31. While it remains unclear whether the host of COP31 will be decided at this summit, Ankara is actively lobbying for its candidacy, leveraging its proximity to Azerbaijan to strengthen its bid.

Editorial Team

Inside Turkey Nov 15, 2024

KUMAR

Kumar (Gambling, noun) derives from Arabic and is forbidden in Islam, as spelled out in Surah al-Maidah of the Quran, where gambling is condemned alongside wine and idolatry. The aim? To incite enmity, foster distraction, and veer Muslims away from prayer. Fast forward to modern-day, secular Turkey, where gambling has made headlines once more. This time, TV personality Mehmet Ali Erbil and pop singer Serdar Ortaç, notorious for their sketchy reputations, were busted for illegal betting. The outcome? House arrest—a promising move for Erbil, an alleged serial harasser.

Nazlan Ertan

Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Nov 8, 2024

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ENTAILS RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY

Donald Trump won the presidential elections just as Turkey witnessed a new wave of elected mayors being replaced by trustees. A leader who threatens retribution against his political enemies will be ruling one of the world’s supposedly most democratic countries.

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Erospolis Nov 1, 2024

ANKARA VS ISTANBUL: SHOULD I STAY OR SHOULD I GO?

“When good bureaucrats retire, they go to Istanbul,” quipped a Turkish diplomat at his farewell dinner several years ago. He was about to join the steady flow of ex-ambassadors and senior officials who settle comfortably into Istanbul’s glamorous private sector. While these bureaucrats enjoy Istanbul’s cosmopolitan delights and lucrative board positions, politicians with unsatisfied ambitions would do well to think twice. The graceful transition from bureaucracy-laden Ankara to Istanbul’s cultural and economic limelight might be liberating—but for politicians, it often signals the end of the line. Take Abdullah Gül, who leads the parade of high-profile politicians who found themselves in Istanbul once their grip on Ankara slipped. Gül, the soft-spoken Number Two to Erdoğan at the founding of AKP, left the presidency in 2014 with considerable bitterness, feeling sidelined by Erdoğan and his team. Settling first in Tarabya’s Presidential Palace and then in a private villa in Beykoz, he became a figure whom former allies and even foes sought out for advice on new parties, and periodically as a possible challenger to Erdoğan. Yet, Gül never took the plunge, proving that the view from Istanbul is often one of wistful distance from real political clout.

Nazlan Ertan

In-Depth Analysis