Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.
Silkelemek, or its shorthand version silkmek (shake-up, verb), carries energy, vigor, and occasionally a political punch. From its Ottoman roots to its modern interpretations, silkelemek has evolved into a word that shakes not only rugs and wrestlers but also bureaucracies, political rivals, and even dreams. At its core, silkelemek is a practical term. It conjures up vivid images of traditional housewives shaking rugs over balconies to rid them of dust. In Turkish dream interpretations, shaking a rug suggests a tranquil and orderly life, free of disruptions. It can also signify divine favor or answered prayers. Shake a rug off a balcony, and it symbolizes the achievement of long-pursued goals. Shake a dusty rug? Bid farewell to financial troubles. And if someone else shakes it for you? Expect wise decisions and peace of mind.
Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus. No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”
Throughout the Syrian drama, NATO never had a common vision or the resolve to push for a tangible solution to Syria’s descent into the abyss. The Arab Spring confused NATO, as it failed to determine whether it was a threat to the alliance or not. In Libya, NATO got fully engaged, but the outcome was further disintegration of that country. In Syria, a much more complex country, NATO was just reluctant, due to polarized views of member nations. NATO’s prudent planning for intervention came up with a prohibitive cost, which no one wanted to assume.
Halep (Aleppo, proper name) touches Turkish hearts, minds, imagination, language and, of course, the political rhetoric in a way few cities of the Ottoman Empire do. The southern jewel of the empire, the city has been a touchstone of trade, culture, and storytelling. But, as far as your cheeky columnist is concerned, its true linguistic value lies in being the punchline in one of Turkey’s wittiest sayings: “Halep oradaysa arşın burada”—“If Aleppo is there, the yardstick is here.” This phrase is more than a geographic observation; it’s a challenge. Based on the oral tale of a man who claimed that back in his great days in Aleppo, he could leap just as high as one could imagine, it’s what you say to someone boasting about their impressive feats in far-off places. “Sure, we can no longer ask around in Aleppo,” it implies, “but let’s see how you measure up here, in the present, with evidence.” In other words, put up or shut up and do not expect us to be persuaded by tall tales.
The Syrian opposition's major advances in the last ten days, especially the capture of Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria, caught not only the international community off guard but also surprised Syrians themselves. The opposition launched Operation “Deterrence of Aggression” on Nov. 27 to end the regime’s attacks on its strongholds in northwest Syria and facilitate the return of at least one million internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their towns in Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama. These towns had been captured by the regime in 2020 in violation of the Astana Process agreed upon by Turkey, Russia, and Iran. The operation successfully achieved its planned objectives within the first four days. However, everything that has occurred since then has been unplanned and unexpected.
President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the helm in Washington DC will certainly affect the future orientation of NATO and have implications for American-Turkish security perceptions. The first term was occasionally stormy as President Trump publicly blamed NATO allies over a number of concerns and even threatened to pull out of the alliance. This time, he is coming back stronger than ever. The number one guiding factor of Trump's foreign policy is purely America's interests and he was not happy with the Europeans' reliance on American forces and money.
Maarif (Education, noun) is derived from the basal root Arf in Arabic, meaning knowledge. In the Ottoman Empire and early years of the Turkish Republic, the Education Ministry was called “Maarif Vekaleti.” In 1946, Maarif Vekaleti was rebaptized as “Milli Eğitim Bakanlığı,” using the modern Turkish word for both education and ministry and adding the term “national.”
Azerbaijan has lost an important opportunity to promote its image on the international stage by delaying a peace deal with Armenia ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku. While experts familiar with the negotiations believe important progress has been made, Baku’s request for changes to the Armenian constitution has become a new obstacle before a final deal.
Kumar (Gambling, noun) derives from Arabic and is forbidden in Islam, as spelled out in Surah al-Maidah of the Quran, where gambling is condemned alongside wine and idolatry. The aim? To incite enmity, foster distraction, and veer Muslims away from prayer. Fast forward to modern-day, secular Turkey, where gambling has made headlines once more. This time, TV personality Mehmet Ali Erbil and pop singer Serdar Ortaç, notorious for their sketchy reputations, were busted for illegal betting. The outcome? House arrest—a promising move for Erbil, an alleged serial harasser.
The tragic story of five young children who perished in a house fire on Nov. 11 underlines the brutal toll of systemic poverty and neglect on society's most vulnerable. Left alone while their mother was out collecting scrap metal to survive, these children died after the electric heater, the only means to heat their makeshift home, went up in flames. Their short lives were tragically cut short not just by fire but by layers of systemic poverty and inadequate social support. The news of their death in Izmir came at a time when many - but not all - world leaders were at Baku for the COP29, making promises of inclusivity, pledging to 'leave no one behind' in addressing climate change, and vowing to secure sustainable development and environmental/social justice. The principle of leaving no one behind, fundamental to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, resonates with promises of justice, equality, and access to basic needs for all. Yet, the Izmir fire reveals that these are slogans on a page while the situation on the ground shows many without adequate housing, safety nets, and opportunities to escape poverty.
Donald Trump won the presidential elections just as Turkey witnessed a new wave of elected mayors being replaced by trustees. A leader who threatens retribution against his political enemies will be ruling one of the world’s supposedly most democratic countries.