Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
When a Canadian camera was found in a downed Turkish drone in the war in Nagorno Karabakh, the Canadian government canceled the product’s export permit in April 2021. “The use of technology in this way is inconsistent with Canada’s foreign policy and Turkey’s end-user commitments,” said the country’s then-foreign minister.
Turkey, a major fossil fuel importer, will walk a fine line as Donald Trump’s return to the presidency sees the U.S. reviving its “energy dominance” policy—a policy widely anticipated to disrupt global energy dynamics. Characterized by ramping up fossil fuel production and expanding energy exports, the restored agenda, now under the new Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a prominent figure in the petroleum industry, will double down on fossil fuels, reversing the Biden administration’s renewable energy priorities.
In the rich tapestry of Turkish names, few are as paradoxical as 'Satılmış.' Literally translating to 'sold' or 'sell-out,' this name carries a weighty connotation that intertwines cultural beliefs, societal perceptions and individual destinies. In Anatolian traditions, giving newborns names like 'Satılmış' or the female version “Satı” is a protective measure. The name was traditionally bestowed upon children with the underlying belief that by symbolically 'selling' the child, parents could deceive malevolent spirits or fate, thereby safeguarding the child from harm or premature death. This practice reflects an interplay between language, belief systems, and cultural practices in Anatolian societies.
The ruling AKP presents the fall of the Assad regime as a success story as well as vindication of its 13-year Syria policy which for many has meant turning the country into a vast migrant camp.
Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger. “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.
The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
The term “arabesk” (arabesque) originates from the Italian “arabesco,” (“in the Arabic style,”) initially describing ornate patterns featuring interlacing foliage and geometric designs. In Turkey, however, “arabesk” evolved beyond its artistic origins to signify a deeply emotive genre of music that emerged in the 1960s, blending Middle Eastern melodies with themes of longing, despair, and resilience.
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.
Silkelemek, or its shorthand version silkmek (shake-up, verb), carries energy, vigor, and occasionally a political punch. From its Ottoman roots to its modern interpretations, silkelemek has evolved into a word that shakes not only rugs and wrestlers but also bureaucracies, political rivals, and even dreams. At its core, silkelemek is a practical term. It conjures up vivid images of traditional housewives shaking rugs over balconies to rid them of dust. In Turkish dream interpretations, shaking a rug suggests a tranquil and orderly life, free of disruptions. It can also signify divine favor or answered prayers. Shake a rug off a balcony, and it symbolizes the achievement of long-pursued goals. Shake a dusty rug? Bid farewell to financial troubles. And if someone else shakes it for you? Expect wise decisions and peace of mind.
Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus. No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”
In Turkish, ağır abi, literally “heavy-weight bro”—is not your run-of-the-mill elder sibling. He is a stoic, charismatic figure who commands respect with the mere arch of an eyebrow. He doesn’t talk much; he doesn’t need to. His presence alone does the heavy lifting. And if anyone currently embodies the essence of an ağır abi, it’s Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s inscrutable foreign minister. Fidan, poker-faced and perpetually unruffled, has become the leading man in Turkey’s diplomatic theater, even overshadowing the usual stars, such as President Erdoğan and the minister of defense. He seized center stage after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, stepping up to the podium in Doha with all the composure of a man placing bets in a high-stakes poker game. His words called for an inclusive transition in Syria: “The new administration must be established in an orderly manner. There must never be a desire for revenge. It is time to unite and reconstruct the country.”
The turn of events in Syria is related to three evolving issues: the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, and the upcoming Trump 2.0. Bashar al-Assad survived the civil war thanks to his powerful allies, Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have all been weakened.