Analysis

In-Depth Analysis

Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.

REAL TURKEY – EU DIRTY DEAL IS ON ITS WAY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 21, 2025

REAL TURKEY – EU DIRTY DEAL IS ON ITS WAY

Every time Turkey takes a big step backward and away from democratic rule, those familiar with Turkish-EU relations tend to also blame the Merkel-Sarkozy duo, who reined back Turkey’s accession talks in the mid-2000s at a time when the AKP was undertaking sweeping reforms to reach universal standards. It was the most serious and bitter wake-up call for those who still had faith in European values, that no matter what Turkey would do, it would never be considered a member of the European family, despite its NATO and Council of Europe membership.

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CITY OF ISTANBUL AND BIG ROUNDUP
Portrait of the Week Mar 21, 2025

CITY OF ISTANBUL AND BIG ROUNDUP

'Whoever loses Istanbul also loses Turkey.' These are the words of President Erdoğan. When did he say it? Eight years ago. Who was he addressing? His own party members, who had begun to sense that the spell was breaking, and realize that things were not going well. If we read this statement in reverse, the conclusion is clear: 'Whoever wins Istanbul also wins Turkey.' Since making this statement, Erdoğan has lost Istanbul twice. In the 2019 and 2024 local elections, the opposition took control of the city.

Anonymous
ARMENIAN PM SENDS HISTORIC MESSAGES TO ANKARA
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 14, 2025

ARMENIAN PM SENDS HISTORIC MESSAGES TO ANKARA

As you drive from Yerevan to the Turkish border, which takes approximately 50 minutes, the stunning view of Mount Ararat becomes clearer. It goes without saying that if Mount Ararat were a human being, its face would be looking toward Armenia while its back would be toward Turkey.

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WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Mar 7, 2025

WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY

The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.

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WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 28, 2025

WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?

Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.

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TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES
Guest Voices Feb 28, 2025

TURKEY'S DREAM OF REGIONAL DOMINANCE MEETS NEW CHALLENGES

Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey.  It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.

Editorial Team
DİPLOMA
Word of the Week Feb 28, 2025

DİPLOMA

A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.

Nazlan Ertan
ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ
Portrait of the Week Feb 21, 2025

ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ

“The first political party leader to be arrested since the September 12, 1980, military coup era after Selahattin Demirtaş.” The arrest of Zafer Party Chair Ümit Özdağ was reported in the media with this headline. However, there is no other similarity that would warrant him being mentioned in the same sentence as Demirtaş. In fact, they belong to entirely different worlds and are entirely opposing figures. Özdağ has been in custody at Silivri Prison for a month since Jan. 21, 2025.

Anonymous
AYAZDA KALMAK
Word of the Week Feb 14, 2025

AYAZDA KALMAK

The word of the week is “ayazda kalmak,” literally translated as “being left out in the cold.” This phrase conveys the sting of exclusion, akin to the English “getting the cold shoulder.” It vividly portrays the experience of feeling neglected or overlooked, much like standing outside on a frosty night while others bask in warmth within. This colloquial idiom recently gained attention following a gathering of the CHP's “Big Three” on Feb. 9. CHP Chair Özgür Özel, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş convened to discuss whether the party should hold primary elections to determine its presidential candidate (Check Deep Dive for more). The photo from the meeting showed the three seated at a table by a fireplace, their notepads open, smiling convivially—your standard political meeting photo. No official statements were made.

Nazlan Ertan
SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy Feb 7, 2025

SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY

When Syria’s new foreign minister chose to go to Saudi Arabia and Qatar for his first international visits before coming to Turkey, the main opposition party criticized the government, asking why Asaad al-Shaibani did not choose to reciprocate the visits of the Turkish foreign minister who went to Damascus two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. For experts, this was only natural since Syria is first and foremost an Arab country and prioritizing relations with Turkey would have caused irritation among Arab capitals. In addition, while Turkey is struggling with its own economic hardships, Syria’s new rulers need Gulf money to get the country on its feet.

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ABESLE İŞTİGAL
Word of the Week Feb 7, 2025

ABESLE İŞTİGAL

The phrase of the moment in Turkey is “abesle iştigal,” the very expression that the country’s word-savvy Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan used to dismiss U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to "take over Gaza" and transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” In the colorful mosaic of Turkish, “abesle iştigal” conveys the sheer futility of engaging in pointless endeavors. The expression is even featured in Lûgat365, a project dedicated to preserving beautiful but near-forgotten words in Turkish.

Editorial Team