Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkey has witnessed dramatic days for the second time in the past twenty years. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s detention sparked outrage and led to one of the largest protests since the iconic 2013 Gezi protests. I spent my days covering rallies in front of the Istanbul Municipality building in Saraçhane, 12 years after staying for a month in Gezi Park. This experience has prompted me to compare the two.
Every time Turkey takes a big step backward and away from democratic rule, those familiar with Turkish-EU relations tend to also blame the Merkel-Sarkozy duo, who reined back Turkey’s accession talks in the mid-2000s at a time when the AKP was undertaking sweeping reforms to reach universal standards. It was the most serious and bitter wake-up call for those who still had faith in European values, that no matter what Turkey would do, it would never be considered a member of the European family, despite its NATO and Council of Europe membership.
'Whoever loses Istanbul also loses Turkey.' These are the words of President Erdoğan. When did he say it? Eight years ago. Who was he addressing? His own party members, who had begun to sense that the spell was breaking, and realize that things were not going well. If we read this statement in reverse, the conclusion is clear: 'Whoever wins Istanbul also wins Turkey.' Since making this statement, Erdoğan has lost Istanbul twice. In the 2019 and 2024 local elections, the opposition took control of the city.
As you drive from Yerevan to the Turkish border, which takes approximately 50 minutes, the stunning view of Mount Ararat becomes clearer. It goes without saying that if Mount Ararat were a human being, its face would be looking toward Armenia while its back would be toward Turkey.
The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.
My grand-aunt never used the word 'zorba' to describe a bully, though it would be the first term to come to mind for many Turkish speakers. Instead, when one of the boys in the family became too combative, she would say, 'What are you, a small 'Ali Kıran Başkesen'?' The phrase, which translates literally as 'Ali who crashes things and cuts heads,' is a Turkish term for an authoritarian bully. It derives from the proverb 'Dalı kıran, baş keser' ('Whoever cuts a branch cuts a head'), originally a cautionary ecological metaphor that somehow evolved into the ultimate descriptor for an overbearing strongman.
Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.
Turkey’s overzealous Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who became prime minister in 2014 only to be sacked by Erdoğan a short while later, once bragged that not even a leaf could move in the Middle East without asking Turkey. It was a time when Ankara was extremely confident about its influence in the region, especially in Syria. However, the Assad regime proved to be much more resilient than thought, thanks to Russia’s support. During this period, Turkey’s influence in Syrian affairs was doubted and even ridiculed by critics of the Ankara government. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan actually tried in vain several times to start direct talks with Bashar Assad through Russian channels.
A university diploma is more than just a piece of paper. It’s a ticket to professional success and social prestige. But in Turkey in recent years, it has also become an object of national obsession, political ammunition, and judicial entanglement. Take, for instance, the latest storm swirling around Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. In February 2025, he found himself under investigation for allegedly forging his university diploma—a charge that could have significant political consequences. The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office launched the probe following a report from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK) questioning the legitimacy of his academic credentials.
We are living in bizarre times. Not just strange or odd, but truly bizarre. Politics is being tested like in a diploma exam. The diploma of Istanbul Mayor and the CHP’s almost certain presidential candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has become nearly the only topic of discussion these days. The diploma debate is not new in Turkish politics either. This is a country where, perhaps since his election, there has been an ongoing debate over whether President Tayyip Erdoğan has a diploma or not. However, this time, the roles have reversed: those who once said, "Erdoğan does not have a diploma; his presidency is invalid," are now facing off against those who argue, "İmamoğlu’s diploma is null and void; he cannot run for the presidency." The debate is revolving around the question of "who actually has a diploma."
U.S. President Donald Trump’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 sent shockwaves throughout Europe. “Everyone was expecting Trump to approach Putin; what shocked Europe was Trump’s positive attitude towards the Russian leader,” a Turkish diplomat told me.
More countries regard Turkey as an ally, according to the Munich Security Report 2025, released ahead of the titular conference which will take place from Feb. 14 to Feb. 16. The rate of people viewing Turkey as an ally, not a “threat,” increased in all of the 11 countries where the survey was held, except France.