Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
89 articles
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
SYRIAN DELEGATION’S FIRST VISIT REFLECTS CAREFUL CALIBRATION
Turkey cannot “design” Syria when others pay the money. The Turkish government lacks the financial resources to put Syria back on its feet. And time is of the essence because, if the new administration is slow in delivering stability, the already big challenges will become even bigger. “We don’t have the money, but we have the capacity,” said a Turkish diplomat. “We need to work for the right model in Syria and use our state capacity to provide our institutional support,” added the diplomat.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
TURKEY AND ISRAEL ON DANGEROUS COLLISION COURSE
The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
ERDOĞAN’S DUAL AGENDA: CHAMPIONING UKRAINE TALKS WHILE RESHAPING SYRIA
Two issues will be of priority in Turkish foreign policy in 2025: post-Assad Syria and the war in Ukraine. Both will be closely linked to the policy preferences of the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As the U.S. leader is expected to stop the war in Ukraine, Turkey will be watching his efforts closely and will seek a role to facilitate a reconciliation between Ukraine and Russia, and between Moscow and the West.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
CHALLENGES TURKEY WILL BE FACING IN SYRIA
Among the many challenges Turkey will face in Syria three stand out. The first stems from the Arab countries. The “Arab streets” are happy to see the end of the suffering of Syrian Arabs at the hands of a dictator. Yet this joy is hardly shared by their rulers. The survival of the Assad regime symbolized the failure of the Arab uprisings of 2011 as Arab leaders feared the movement of political Islam could hit home to challenge their rule.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
WILL ANKARA REPEAT ITS DELUSIONAL 2011 STANCE IN SYRIA?
Despite jubilatory rhetoric from governmental circles, Turkey was caught unprepared for the rapid fall of the Assad regime in Syria. The best scenario was to sit down with a weakened Bashar al-Assad, which explains why Turkey was still desperately expecting to receive a reconciliatory message from him when the Iranian foreign minister came to Ankara on Dec. 2 from Damascus. No doubt, Turkey will enjoy certain advantages in terms of playing a role in designing a “new Syria.” And certainly, in contrast to Iran and Russia, which appear to be the losers from the regime's fall, Turkey makes it to the list of “winners,” while Israel tops it as the “biggest winner.”
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
SYRIA WAR REIGNITES; WHAT’S IN IT FOR TURKEY?
The turn of events in Syria is related to three evolving issues: the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East, and the upcoming Trump 2.0. Bashar al-Assad survived the civil war thanks to his powerful allies, Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, which have all been weakened.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
YET ANOTHER LOST OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE IN CAUCASUS
Azerbaijan has lost an important opportunity to promote its image on the international stage by delaying a peace deal with Armenia ahead of the COP29 summit in Baku. While experts familiar with the negotiations believe important progress has been made, Baku’s request for changes to the Armenian constitution has become a new obstacle before a final deal.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
TURKEY HAS A DIPLOMAT WHO DOES NOT SHAKE HANDS WITH WOMEN
When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall. Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ENTAILS RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR TURKEY
Donald Trump won the presidential elections just as Turkey witnessed a new wave of elected mayors being replaced by trustees. A leader who threatens retribution against his political enemies will be ruling one of the world’s supposedly most democratic countries.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
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IS HARRIS OR TRUMP BETTER FOR TURKEY?
For some in Turkey whoever wins the White House in next week’s elections, it won’t make much difference. It might not be that simple. It is no secret that ever since the failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been bad blood between Ankara and the Democrats in Washington. The view that part of the U.S. establishment was close to the Gülenist movement and the lukewarm reaction shown to the coup attempt reinforced the conviction among AKP elites that had the coup succeeded, Washington was not going to shed tears for the toppling of the government.
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
JOINING BRICS IS EASIER SAID THAN DONE
Only some people, apart from the experts and those involved with the energy sector, are aware that Turkey has quietly joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), a Western cooperation platform on essential minerals. Critical minerals have become the new frontline of the rivalry between China and the US. China has a global monopoly on the production (70%) and processing (90%) of rare-earth elements (REEs).
Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
CHANGE OR CONTINUITY IN TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s upcoming visit to Athens comes at a moment of some confusion about Turkey’s relations with Greece. The status of bilateral ties came under scrutiny after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece on the sidelines of annual UN summit in New York in September.