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Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy

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TURKISH DIPLOMACY IN RETREAT Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
April 11, 2025

TURKISH DIPLOMACY IN RETREAT

In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations. As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.

INWARD TURMOIL, OUTWARD TALKS: THE PARADOX OF TURKEY’S EU MOMENT Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
April 4, 2025

INWARD TURMOIL, OUTWARD TALKS: THE PARADOX OF TURKEY’S EU MOMENT

“Turkey gives its children no chance to concern themselves with anything but itself,” said Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar, a prominent Turkish poet and novelist who died in 1962. While the world was preoccupied with Donald Trump’s tariffs and the international media’s coverage focused on the reactions, Turkey was only discussing the opposition's call for an economic boycott implemented on April 2.

TRUMP’S SILENCE ON İMAMOĞLU DEEPENS ANKARA’S VULNERABILITIES Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
March 28, 2025

TRUMP’S SILENCE ON İMAMOĞLU DEEPENS ANKARA’S VULNERABILITIES

The cancellation of the Istanbul mayor’s diploma, followed by his arrest, came two days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone with U.S. President Donald Trump. For many, this was not a coincidence. This telephone conversation was underreported, according to Steve Witcoff. “Good news is coming from Turkey,” added Trump’s special envoy on March 22, when thousands had taken to the streets to protest the blatant assault against Turkish democracy.

REAL TURKEY – EU DIRTY DEAL IS ON ITS WAY Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
March 21, 2025

REAL TURKEY – EU DIRTY DEAL IS ON ITS WAY

Every time Turkey takes a big step backward and away from democratic rule, those familiar with Turkish-EU relations tend to also blame the Merkel-Sarkozy duo, who reined back Turkey’s accession talks in the mid-2000s at a time when the AKP was undertaking sweeping reforms to reach universal standards. It was the most serious and bitter wake-up call for those who still had faith in European values, that no matter what Turkey would do, it would never be considered a member of the European family, despite its NATO and Council of Europe membership.

ARMENIAN PM SENDS HISTORIC MESSAGES TO ANKARA Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
March 14, 2025

ARMENIAN PM SENDS HISTORIC MESSAGES TO ANKARA

As you drive from Yerevan to the Turkish border, which takes approximately 50 minutes, the stunning view of Mount Ararat becomes clearer. It goes without saying that if Mount Ararat were a human being, its face would be looking toward Armenia while its back would be toward Turkey.

WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
March 7, 2025

WHO CALLS THE SHOTS? AZERBAIJAN’S GROWING LEVERAGE OVER TURKEY

The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.

WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE? Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
February 28, 2025

WILL TURKEY BE SPLIT BETWEEN THE U.S. AND EUROPE?

Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.

TRUMP’S PRO-RUSSIA SHIFT: A BLESSING OR A CHALLENGE FOR ANKARA? Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
February 21, 2025

TRUMP’S PRO-RUSSIA SHIFT: A BLESSING OR A CHALLENGE FOR ANKARA?

U.S. President Donald Trump’s telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 12 sent shockwaves throughout Europe.  “Everyone was expecting Trump to approach Putin; what shocked Europe was Trump’s positive attitude towards the Russian leader,” a Turkish diplomat told me.

TURKEY AND EUROPE WEIGH STRATEGIC TIES IN A POST-TRUMP WORLD Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
February 14, 2025

TURKEY AND EUROPE WEIGH STRATEGIC TIES IN A POST-TRUMP WORLD

More countries regard Turkey as an ally, according to the Munich Security Report 2025, released ahead of the titular conference which will take place from Feb. 14 to Feb. 16. The rate of people viewing Turkey as an ally, not a “threat,” increased in all of the 11 countries where the survey was held, except France.

SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
February 7, 2025

SYRIA’S NEW LEADER PAYS LOW-KEY VISIT TO TURKEY

When Syria’s new foreign minister chose to go to Saudi Arabia and Qatar for his first international visits before coming to Turkey, the main opposition party criticized the government, asking why Asaad al-Shaibani did not choose to reciprocate the visits of the Turkish foreign minister who went to Damascus two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. For experts, this was only natural since Syria is first and foremost an Arab country and prioritizing relations with Turkey would have caused irritation among Arab capitals. In addition, while Turkey is struggling with its own economic hardships, Syria’s new rulers need Gulf money to get the country on its feet.

NEW CODES OF TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
January 31, 2025

NEW CODES OF TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTRY

When a Canadian camera was found in a downed Turkish drone in the war in Nagorno Karabakh, the Canadian government canceled the product’s export permit in April 2021.  “The use of technology in this way is inconsistent with Canada’s foreign policy and Turkey’s end-user commitments,” said the country’s then-foreign minister.

TURKEY’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY UNDER SCRUTINY Deciphering Turkish Diplomacy
January 24, 2025

TURKEY’S MIDDLE EAST POLICY UNDER SCRUTINY

The ruling AKP presents the fall of the Assad regime as a success story as well as vindication of its 13-year Syria policy which for many has meant turning the country into a vast migrant camp.