Analysis
Smart, independent reporting on Turkey's politics, economy and foreign affairs.
Turkey and France, NATO allies and regional heavyweights, are locked in a relationship best described as a cocktail of competition, cooperation, and confrontation. Despite shared interests in trade and global security, Ankara and Paris appear increasingly out of step on strategic and ideological matters even as flashpoints multiply.
The Trump administration and Turkey got off to a good start but the relationship needs to mature, an American observer familiar with both sides told me when asked about the first 100 days.
The Central Asian Republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have been on the radar of those who follow international relations due to two recent developments. Traditionally, the Central Asian Republics, rich in natural resources in a geo-strategic location, have been in the Russian sphere of influence and Russia still tries to exert dominance over them. However, nearly all have started to diversify their relations with third countries and regional groupings such as China, the U.S., the EU and Turkey.
In contrast to Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek’s positive messages following the EU - Turkey High-Level Economic Dialogue, the meeting, which took place after a six-year hiatus, ended without a substantial road map to revive relations. As developments in transatlantic relations appeared to be raising Turkey’s value as a geostrategic asset, Ankara hoped to seize the opportunity to improve relations with the EU. Yet, European enthusiasm towards Turkey’s military strength remained limited, while the arrest of Istanbul's Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has made life difficult for those favoring a speedier rapprochement.
Every time Turkey takes a big step backward and away from democratic rule, those familiar with Turkish-EU relations tend to also blame the Merkel-Sarkozy duo, who reined back Turkey’s accession talks in the mid-2000s at a time when the AKP was undertaking sweeping reforms to reach universal standards. It was the most serious and bitter wake-up call for those who still had faith in European values, that no matter what Turkey would do, it would never be considered a member of the European family, despite its NATO and Council of Europe membership.
The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan reiterated the good relations between the two countries in front of the cameras on March 5 in Ankara, while opening a new pipeline connecting Turkey to Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Yet, while the two do indeed enjoy good relations, they do not see eye-to-eye in their visions for regional peace in the Caucasus.
Turkish-Russian relations have their own dynamics. Yet, it goes without saying that Turkey’s relations with the West have always influenced them. The deterioration in relations with the West usually is followed by an improved relationship with Moscow and vice versa. But while Turkey’s relations with the West have taken a nosedive in the past decade, one cannot say Ankara and Moscow have been on a honeymoon during that period. Still, there is no doubt that the Kremlin has managed its relations with Ankara much better than the West managed its relationship with its ally Turkey.
When Syria’s new foreign minister chose to go to Saudi Arabia and Qatar for his first international visits before coming to Turkey, the main opposition party criticized the government, asking why Asaad al-Shaibani did not choose to reciprocate the visits of the Turkish foreign minister who went to Damascus two weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. For experts, this was only natural since Syria is first and foremost an Arab country and prioritizing relations with Turkey would have caused irritation among Arab capitals. In addition, while Turkey is struggling with its own economic hardships, Syria’s new rulers need Gulf money to get the country on its feet.
The political and military cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the 1990s benefited both in terms of their relations with Syria. Following Turkey’s threat to use force, Syrian then-President Hafez Al-Assad decided to end his policy of providing safe haven to PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
When Hakan Fidan addressed the 14th conference of the ambassadors in August 2023, two months after he was appointed as foreign minister, the message was clear to those present in the hall. Having led the Turkish Intelligence Agency for 13 years, it became clear from Fidan’s address that foreign policy would be shaped and implemented from a security perspective. While this might not present an abnormality as the world is becoming highly insecure, Fidan took office at a time when Turkey was seeking to normalize its relations with many of its neighbors.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s upcoming visit to Athens comes at a moment of some confusion about Turkey’s relations with Greece. The status of bilateral ties came under scrutiny after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis of Greece on the sidelines of annual UN summit in New York in September.
When Olaf Scholz came to Turkey on March 14, 2022, barely three months after he became German chancellor, the war in Ukraine was two-and-a-half weeks old and seen as the main motivation for his willingness to talk to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, neither the war nor Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and Ukraine helped improve bilateral relations.